Tracy Shuchart (𝒞𝒽𝒾 )
@chigrl
Senior Economist at NinjaTrader Live/NinjaTrader Group LLC.
CEO/Founder Hilltower Resource Advisors LLC. @HilltowerRA
Substack: Renegade Resources
977 Following 360.9K Followers
321 crack spreads are literally screaming we have a problem...but supply glut..oki
(chart via Bloomberg)
Deep thoughts by @chigrl
Gold sold off today, but call premium exploded.
Ask yourself why.
OK Switzerland...you better pull through tonight
This move in crude today is more a function of traders being offsides not understanding the risk. (Check my last substack)
Iran was not finding buyers anyway with the 60 day waiver. The matter was complicated due to existing EU and UK sanctions, coupled with transit times, and uncertainty on this MOU.
In addition, length has been completely taken out of the crude markets on hopium, particularly in Brent. Sentiment at lows.
Today's price action on a headline is the result.
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Iran’s Floating Oil Hoard Swells as Major Buyers Stay Away
More than 20 million barrels of Iranian crude have been idling in Asian waters for at least seven days, up nearly 18% from a week earlier, according to Kpler Ltd.
More than 90% of these cargoes on water have no clear destination. The vessels are either indicating “for orders” or Singapore as their next port of call, a sign they may conduct ship-to-ship transfers in the Malacca Strait.
China’s imports of Iranian crude more than halved in June to about 654,000 barrels a day from a month earlier, according to Kpler.
Indian Oil Minister Hardeep Puri met his Iranian counterpart in New Delhi last week, but stopped short of committing to imports. (Bloomberg)
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so that is how that is going ...
Warned this morning on the Morning Gap Macro show on @NTLiveMedia to be aware of possible retaliation for the attacks on vessels last night and this morning
*US IS REVOKING IRAN-RELATED GENERAL LICENSE TO EXPORT OIL
*IRAN'S ACTIONS IN STRAIT OF HORMUZ WHOLLY UNACCEPTABLE: OFFICIAL
I will take the over on fees/tolls (whatever you want to name it) are coming >>
Iran Tells UN It Has Right to Control ‘Parts’ of Hormuz Strait
Iran told the United Nations’ shipping agency that it has authority over parts of the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway that’s a centerpiece of peace talks between Washington and Tehran.
“Parts of the Strait of Hormuz fall within the territorial waters of the Islamic Republic of Iran,” the country said in a document submitted to the International Maritime Organization, the UN agency charged with overseeing shipping. “Under the international law of the sea, a coastal State exercises sovereignty, jurisdiction and sovereign authority over its territorial sea.” (Bloomberg)
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*PEABODY GETS DOE GRANT FOR RARE EARTH, CRITICAL MINERALS - BBG
Up today at 8:30 AM ET on @NTLiveMedia we have the amazing @AzizSapphire as a special guest!
Link:
Google and RWE Back German Nuclear Startup Proxima Fusion at €2.4 Billion Valuation
German startup Proxima Fusion has raised €411 million ($469 million) from a range of investors, including national energy firm RWE AG and Alphabet Inc.’s Google, to develop a nuclear fusion plant it hopes will be operational in the 2030s.
XTX Ventures, the investment arm from Alex Gerko’s algorithmic trading firm XTX Markets Ltd, led the financing round with London-based firm East X Ventures. The deal gives the three year-old energy firm a valuation of €2.4 billion, Proxima Fusion said on Tuesday. (Bloomberg)
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China’s PBOC Buys Most Gold Since 2023 as Bullion Swings
China’s central bank bought more gold in June, extending the longest buying streak since at least 2015 and underscoring a commitment to diversifying its reserves despite volatility in bullion prices.
Bullion held by the People’s Bank of China rose by 480,000 troy ounces to 75.44 million ounces last month, according to data released on Tuesday. The purchase is the biggest since October 2023, and brings the buying streak to 20 months. (Bloomberg)
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Hong Kong Begins Trial Operation of New Gold Clearing System
Hong Kong has launched the trial operation of a new gold clearing system, backed by several major banks, in a key step toward its ambition to become a significant bullion-trading hub with price-setting power.
The mechanism will help lay the groundwork for the city to contribute a global reference rate for the gold-trading market, Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee said on Tuesday at the Hong Kong FIC & Bond Connect Summit.
“The goal, of course, is to build a highly sophisticated, institutional gold-trading market in Hong Kong,” he said. “That includes significantly strengthening our gold storage and refining facilities in the coming years.” (Bloomberg)
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Everything is fine
UKMTO WARNING 080-26 - ATTACK
Click here to view UKMTO Products⤵️
#MaritimeSecurity# #MarSec#
Notice "climate change" quietly dropped out of the Davos script right when winning the AI race started requiring gigawatts. Turns out the crisis was negotiable all along....just sayin
🙏
SET REMINDERS! See you Thursday for our new series!
Stoked to kick off our ETF spaces series with @MebFaber 🔥@CambriaFunds - Thursday July 9th at 12PM ET
I’ll be joined by @chigrl @ScottW_Grizzle 🫡
Insights about: Shareholder Yield + Investing in America (his new book!)
Powered by @BidAskResearch 📊
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Up today at 8:30 AM ET on @NTLiveMedia we have special guest @trevornoren
Link:
$BP Sells Canadian Offshore Oil Project Stake to Equinor
BP Plc is selling its nearly 40% non-operated interest in the Bay du Nord oil project offshore eastern Canada to Equinor ASA, the operator of the development, as the oil major continues to simplify its portfolio.
“We’re proud of our partnership with Equinor and the work we’ve done together to develop the Bay du Nord project,” BP Executive Vice President of upstream Gordon Birrell said in a statement on Monday. “However, BP is exercising strict capital discipline, allocating it to the opportunities that create the most value for BP.” (Bloomberg)
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Chinese Teapots Lured by Crude Discounts in Adnoc Tender
Chinese teapot refineries emerged as buyers in Adnoc’s latest oil tender
Adnoc sold about 18m bbl of crude via in fifth tender for loading through August; Upper Zakum was the main grade sold, while some Das also changed hands, according to traders familiar with the matter
The observation in this tender is that the Chinese teapots are now out buying, whereas in previous tenders they were not even in the buyer list, indicating that the current discounts are now at a level that competes with Iranian and Russian alternatives: Goh (Bloomberg)
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Pakistan Buys More LNG as Flows Through Hormuz Fail to Recover
Pakistan bought a liquefied natural gas shipment for delivery later this week, as exports from main supplier Qatar through the Strait of Hormuz remain constrained.
The purchase marks Pakistan’s second spot gas procurement in two weeks as Islamabad seeks to replace canceled Qatari supplies stuck in the Persian Gulf. While traffic via Hormuz — a key conduit for about a fifth of global LNG supply — has increased since the US and Iran signed an interim peace agreement, flows of the super-chilled fuel haven’t yet recovered to pre-war levels. (Bloomberg)
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Iran’s Floating Oil Hoard Swells as Major Buyers Stay Away
More than 20 million barrels of Iranian crude have been idling in Asian waters for at least seven days, up nearly 18% from a week earlier, according to Kpler Ltd.
More than 90% of these cargoes on water have no clear destination. The vessels are either indicating “for orders” or Singapore as their next port of call, a sign they may conduct ship-to-ship transfers in the Malacca Strait.
China’s imports of Iranian crude more than halved in June to about 654,000 barrels a day from a month earlier, according to Kpler.
Indian Oil Minister Hardeep Puri met his Iranian counterpart in New Delhi last week, but stopped short of committing to imports. (Bloomberg)
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