Imagine, for a moment, you are an LP in Situational Awareness. The fund that launched on a pitch that was essentially “AI is the only thing that matters and if you recognize that and wish to be invested in a vehicle that will express that view by getting massively nips to nuts long the most beta to our informed AI views this fine stock market can offer us, then you invest”. And you invested. Not just because you’re bullish on AI, thousands of hedge funds are “bullish on AI”, but because you think Leopold is uniquely situated as being one of/knowing “the few hundred people” who will bring about Machine God before 2030. Then over the next two years, the fund did exactly what it said it would. And it went up. By, like, twenty something times if I’m remembering properly. Again, in this scenario you are the person who read Situational Awareness (the paper) and said “Yes, I agree AI is more powerful than the nuclear bomb and will render the world unrecognizable before the decade is out. And I want my investments into the hedge fund version of that view”. Now those stocks go down, so the fund goes down. Let me ask you - do these LPs seem like the type of people that are going to become bearish on AI because SK Hynix got cut in half in six weeks? The people who likely regard “I’m going long TQQQ” levels of tech bullishness the same way normal people view investing into a muni bond fund? Yeah...I would not expect many of them are calling Mr. Ash Burner to complain right now. Some people don’t realize how insane being up 2200% since inception (in 2024) is. To put that into perspective, if you invested $100M with SALP at inception and wiped out ninety percent in July, your investment would be worth $230M. I think it’s probable the LPs will BTFD. Situational Awareness is going to get the money they’re asking for. And, once it’s in, they’ll take off their (likely short dated) hedges because they’re not at risk of getting liquidated by their prime, meaning the market makers that sold them the hedges will cover their delta hedge on what’s probably quite a lot of notional exposure. And at the same time, they will be deploying that capital into what they think is “the best buying opportunity since April 2025”. I don’t think @leopoldasch is in trouble so much as he’s likely to raise the capital he’s asking for, which would mean it’s more likely now that Leopold causes the bottom than causes AI to continue going down. If there’s something I’m missing that would cause this cohort of LPs who are AI-super-believers that are likely still up significantly on their SALP investment to decide that they would rather not buy the dip, then, sure, every stock even vaguely AI-smelling is probably going to Hades. But…

We only write 1-2 primers a year because we want them to be durable. It’s simple to publish something market relevant for 6 months, but our goal is a piece you can return to years later and still derive value. Our Robotics primer meets that standard.