In eastern Ukraine 🇺🇦 the battle for the fortress belt is slowly ongoing with the final target, -the castle- Kramatorsk 14km from the frontline The fortress belt is a 90km long urban area in the Donbass, eastern Ukraine, which stayed under Ukrainian control in 2014-15 and became a central base in the region for the army. If we usually include 4 cities, I chose to add two more. To the south, the mining and industrial city of Toretsk served as the southern bastion, located directly on the Donbas front line and heavily fortified between 2014 and 2022. The urban conurbation extends toward Kostiantynivka, followed by Druzhkivka, Kramatorsk (the de facto capital of Ukrainian Donbas since 2014), and Sloviansk; across the Donets River lies Lyman (captured and subsequently liberated in 2022), which forms the northern bastion. These six cities, spanning a 90-kilometer stretch, were preceded by an initial line of defense that fell between 2023 and 2025: the Bakhmut (2023)–Soledar (2023)–Siversk (2025) line. In 2024, the Russian army focused on the southern Donbas, capturing Ukrainian strongholds on the outskirts of Donetsk and pushing westward into the countryside to neutralize the Pokrovsk hub, which fell between late 2025 and early 2026. Concurrently, the battle for Toretsk, which began in 2024, continued into 2025, ultimately allowing Russian forces to reach Kostiantynivka by the end of the year. ➡️Currently, the Russian 🇷🇺 army is pushing in several directions. After breaching the line in the south, it has seized part of Kostiantynivka (fighting is still ongoing in the north of the city and is expected to last until early autumn) and is continuing its advance toward Druzhkivka—the last stronghold before Kramatorsk—along two axes: from Kostiantynivka and from Pokrovsk. ➡️At the same time, the Russian army is advancing toward Sloviansk, although its chances of entering the city from the east appear limited given the terrain. An urban battle for Mykolaivka, east of Sloviansk, is expected to take place in the autumn, while Russian forces will be able to set up artillery and drone positions to strike Kramatorsk and Sloviansk in the coming months. ➡️To the north, the battle for Lyman—which was expected to break the tactical deadlock around Sloviansk—has stalled. The main reason is a counter-attack by the Ukrainian 3rd Corps, which threatens to trap thousands of soldiers north of the city. Even if Lyman were to fall, crossing the Donets River poses a major obstacle to any advance on Sloviansk. ➡️Finally, an offensive is underway at Dobropillia, in the western part of the Donetsk Oblast. Russian forces are attempting to approach this city from Pokrovsk; Dobropillia serves as the southern flank of the Donbas "fortress." It is backed by several defensive lines and smaller towns leading to Barvinkove, the logistical hub that currently anchors the entire Donbas region. Right now, 3 logistics roads remain, leading to Oleksandrivka (and then Pavlohrad), Barvinkove (and then Lozova) and Izium (and then Kharkiv). These roads are not yet under constant fire, but FPV drones are already operating in Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, while airstrikes continue to fall in the area. I do not believe there is a set timetable, but I think we can make some assumptions about the next stages of the battle. The fall of Kostiantynivka will be complete by autumn, paving the way for the battle for Oleksievo-Druzhkivka. The battle for Druzhkivka could begin before the end of the year, though this is open to doubt given the time required to secure its approaches. The battle for Dobropillia could also start soon. Given the intensity of the fighting and the Ukrainian resistance, the war for the Donbas could drag on into 2027 and perhaps even longer. This battle remains central to the conflict, although we must also keep an eye on other fronts—particularly the southern front and the border areas.