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Cullen Roche
@cullenroche
Founder & CIO @disciplinefunds 📊 | Author of Your Perfect Portfolio & Pragmatic Capitalism 📖| Defined Duration Investing ⌛| Board at Cambria ETFs 💸
Joined February 2009
2.1K Following    98.8K Followers
This is a good takedown. It’s hard to emphasize how bad Prop 40 (the one time billionaire tax) actually is. It’s so near sighted and void of evidence that its passing relies entirely on narrative. The fact that it’s retroactive to Jan 1, 2026 is the tell. The people supporting this know it causes capital flight so they made it retroactive to tax people who leave before they leave. But they’ll leave anyhow because they’ll assume this isn’t really a one time tax (it never is, anyhow). Capital is global. A billionaire moving from CA to TX doesn't change what gets funded. What changes is who pays CA income tax, and the top 1% pays ~half of it. Attacking that wealth is a long-run impediment on the state’s ability to fund the very things this wealth tax claims to fund in the long-run just so some politician can score a short-term “win”. Property taxes work because you can't move a house and all states have them. Financial wealth moves where it’s treated friendly. Europe learned this the hard way: 12 countries had wealth taxes in 1990, 3 do now. You can have progressive income taxation without making it punitive. Prop 40 is punitive and will hurt the very people it intends to help.
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A bunch of Nobel Prize-winning economists have endorsed California's proposed billionaire wealth tax. I can't oppose them on authority. But I know some academics who can.