Thoughts on Memory
1. I do not agree with the idea of a memory supply glut in 2029. I expect demand growth to accelerate further.
2. Around 2029 to 2030, the memory business will undergo a fundamental transformation. Think of how we no longer view NVIDIA as simply a gaming GPU company.
3. China will remain a competitive threat, but equipment constraints will make capacity expansion harder than many expect. Its impact on the supply and demand balance in 2029 will also be smaller than the market fears.
4. I expect memory stocks to begin rerating within the next six months. This also ties into a broader rerating of the KOSPI.
5. I believe memory needs to rerate first for other AI themes to follow. That view has not changed.
Source: me