🟢 Geopolitical de-escalation sparks $618M in net taker volume, wiping out Bitcoin shorts This weekend, which looked set to be complicated on the geopolitical front, ended with the abandonment of a massive military operation that the United States had been preparing. This positive news, relayed last night, allowed markets to wake up in the green. That was all speculators needed to shake up the Bitcoin derivatives market hard this morning. Within an hour, net taker volume jumped from +$11 million to +$618 million on Binance at the opening of European markets. It is fairly rare to see this much buying power flow into derivatives in such a short time. This burst of positivity liquidated more than $400 million in short positions across the entire crypto market, helping Bitcoin break above $85 000. This marks a trend change, as it is a break of structure relative to the May high. Despite a context that remains tense, Bitcoin appears to be continuing its momentum, notably fueled by investors who still don't believe in it and are positioning against the crowd.

The more time goes by, the more I get the feeling that certain entities, like the ECB, fear that a very different economy could emerge from their digital euro proposal. They’re even rewarding companies willing to be pioneers. Maybe they’ll throw in an airdrop at the end too…

🗞️ Ethereum's silent accumulation Hits a 3-Year High In just 3 months, ethereum:native has gone from $1 510 to $2 650, a gain of more than 75%. This move structurally breaks the prevailing trend by clearing April's high. Compared to Bitcoin, which has yet to establish itself durably above its May high, ETH has taken a bit of a lead. This has been made possible by the accumulation of ETH on Binance, which has just reached its highest level in 3 years. The monthly average of ETH withdrawal transactions from Binance has just surpassed 90 000, a high not seen since 2023, which is double the level recorded at the start of the year. It highlights just how significant, and fairly sudden, this accumulation has been. When ETH leaves a platform like Binance in this way, it suggests that many investors bought and then withdrew their ETH to move it into private custody solutions. This type of behavior is associated with an accumulation logic, aimed at medium to long term holding. This dynamic is reinforcing the trend building on ETH, a trend that is currently much stronger on Ethereum than on Bitcoin.

🗞️ USD1 crosses $60B in Cumulative Volume on Binance ethereum:0x8d0d000ee44948fc98c9b98a4fa4921476f08b0d 's cumulative trading volume on Binance has just passed $60B. That's a significant figure for a stablecoin launched less than 18 months ago. For those less familiar with it, USD1 was launched in March 2025 by World Liberty Financial, a company partly co-founded by the Trump family. It is backed by U.S. dollars and short-term U.S. Treasury bills, under an institutional-style compliance framework. Its market cap now exceeds $4B (~$4.33B) and continues to grow. One nuance, though, a single institutional transaction, tied to a $2B settlement as part of an investment in Binance, accounts for a large share of that market cap. The growth in market cap should therefore be read with some perspective. Volumes give a more accurate picture of actual usage. On Binance, monthly trading volumes are stabilizing between $5B and $8B, pointing to steady usage rather than a one-off spike. USD1 keeps carving out its place in the stablecoin ecosystem, notably thanks to Binance, a platform that holds around 70% of the stablecoins present on exchanges.

Reserves held on known OTC desk addresses are currently at their lowest level. Right now, 123 000 BTC are held on OTC desks. In September 2021, they were close to 500 000 BTC. Over time, fewer and fewer BTC are being offered on OTC desks. There could be several reasons for this. Investors increasingly prefer to hold their BTC, so they are less inclined to offer them in OTC deals. It could also be because BTC is becoming less centralized. I'm thinking in particular of miners, who could use this route to sell BTC without impacting the price. And perhaps today, people simply prefer to sell on the open market rather than go through OTC desks. Either way, seeing reserves melt away like this suggests that fewer and fewer BTC are being put up for sale outside the market. Demand will have to turn more toward direct buying on the market, which the price should benefit from.

Despite a good day for ETFs on Friday, it wasn't enough to reverse the trend. This marks a second consecutive negative week, with around 5 700 BTC leaving ETF holdings. Likely tied to the fairly pessimistic news of the week (rate hikes, conflicts...). That said, Bitcoin still delivered a solid performance this week.

Bitcoin has already returned to the median zone after leaving the rarest price distribution zones, namely the percentiles between P0.5 and P2. Every bear market has been an opportunity to accumulate bitcoin:native at a statistically rare price. These periods don't last long relative to Bitcoin's historical trajectory, which is precisely what makes them ideal windows for long-term accumulation. Now we'll start watching for the opposite scenario: periods of overvaluation.

Hey everyone, feel free to come check out what’s happening over at @_bitview_ and follow the account. I chose to lend a hand to my friend @_nym21_ , who puts in a lot of effort to provide data extracted directly from the blockchain and its blocks, all of it open source and completely free. This is my way of contributing, with the little time I have, to a project that truly deserves it, and also to the whole Bitcoin ecosystem. Personally, I love using Bitview’s data. It’s very accurate, and the charts are always designed to track how the market evolves, which offers approaches that differ a lot from some on-chain indicators that have become largely obsolete.

🗞️ Altcoins outperform BTC as 70% climb back above their 200-day average Altcoin momentum is surging those days. Total3, which represents altcoin market cap excluding ETH, has just moved back above the $800B threshold, a level not seen in over 8 months. This move structurally breaks above May's high, backed by a strong daily close. This comes as bitcoin:native remains stuck in a range between $75 600 and $82 000. Volumes are therefore naturally rotating more toward altcoins, with dominance at 53% on Binance. This setup, now in place for several weeks, is pushing altcoin performance to levels last seen in October 2025, at the market peak. On Binance, 70% of altcoins have moved back above their 200-dma (day moving average), a key level closely watched by investors to confirm a trend. This follows a long bear market during which altcoins as a whole sat 65% to 85% below this average for nearly a year. So a very positive dynamic is taking hold in the altcoin sector, which appears to be outperforming BTC for now. But be careful, this kind of development can shift quickly, so caution remains warranted.

Understand what’s happening right now. The market has completely shifted on Bitcoin. We’ve just crossed a real threshold. The change in behavior is notable. The market has just gone from panic selling to buying the dip. If you’re expecting to see bitcoin:native lower, it gets complicated.

🗞️ Altcoins outperform BTC as 70% climb back above their 200-day average Altcoin momentum is surging those days. Total3, which represents altcoin market cap excluding ETH, has just moved back above the $800B threshold, a level not seen in over 8 months. This move structurally breaks above May's high, backed by a strong daily close. This comes as bitcoin:native remains stuck in a range between $75 600 and $82 000. Volumes are therefore naturally rotating more toward altcoins, with dominance at 53% on Binance. This setup, now in place for several weeks, is pushing altcoin performance to levels last seen in October 2025, at the market peak. On Binance, 70% of altcoins have moved back above their 200-dma (day moving average), a key level closely watched by investors to confirm a trend. This follows a long bear market during which altcoins as a whole sat 65% to 85% below this average for nearly a year. So a very positive dynamic is taking hold in the altcoin sector, which appears to be outperforming BTC for now. But be careful, this kind of development can shift quickly, so caution remains warranted.

🗞️ Binance casts a shadow over the ECB's digital euro ambitions Bitcoin, and blockchain more broadly, continue to expand and offer increasingly innovative solutions, starting with tokenization, which today is the ecosystem's leading topic. But another challenge continues to hold back the expansion of this space: regulation. The central question surrounding this regulation is whether it exists to serve or to undermine the ecosystem. This question takes on real significance in light of an incredible piece of news, reported by the Wall Street Journal: the ECB, and specifically its president Christine Lagarde, allegedly intervened to prevent Binance from obtaining its MiCA license. Binance was on the verge of securing a MiCA license through Greece, having filed its application with the Hellenic Capital Market Commission in late 2025. The regulator had reviewed Binance's application to become a crypto-asset service provider and was preparing to approve it, before the ECB stepped in with its veto. This isn't just any exchange we're talking about. On Bitcoin, Binance is the number one exchange by trading volume, both in spot and futures. In 2024 and 2025, Bitcoin futures volumes on the platform exceeded $7T, far ahead of Bitget, OKX, or Bybit. In spot trading, this dominance repeats itself, with substantial volumes ranging between $1T and over $2T since 2024. Even in tokenization, looking at trading volumes for tokenized equities, Binance once again dominates by a wide margin. Seeing an exchange of this scale being restricted by an institution like the ECB therefore raises plenty of questions. One might wonder, for instance, whether the ECB fears that such easy access to stablecoins or other assets like Bitcoin would overshadow the rollout of its digital euro. It remains highly unusual to see an ECB president like Christine Lagarde step outside the bounds of her mandate to carry out an intervention of this kind. This could very well be seen as a very positive signal for the ecosystem's development.

bitcoin:native has managed to climb above the STH cost basis for almost a month now. The STH cost basis isn't represented in a linear way here, since ultimately it's an average. Factoring in invested capital across different age bands, this cloud represents the average concentration of capital invested in Bitcoin over the past 6 months (150-155d). This clearly shows that this is the first time since the start of the bear market that Bitcoin has managed to break free from this estimated cost basis of between $70,100 and $71,900. In other words, it's now trading with a positive deviation of around 5%, signaling that the majority of STH are in profit. This is an important positive signal, one that was also observed at the end of the 2023 bear market. Want to see Bitcoin turn back upward ? One of the preliminary steps was getting STH back into a comfort zone, that's now been done.