Michael Dunne
@dunne_insights
Dunne Insights: Winning in electric and autonomous vehicle markets.
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Found my car. Now how to get it over to America?
Export as oxygen.
Average selling price of BYD and Leapmotor in China both well under $20,000.
Same cars exported overseas tend to be double the price.
Chinese automakers now make their profits mostly on exports.
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China Vehicle Export Leaders
1H 2026
> Chery is No. 1
> BYD is fastest-growing
> State-owned enterprises 4 of top 8.
> "Others" accounted for 1 million exports!
Sources: CAAM, Automobility, CPCA, Gasgoo Company reports.
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Shocking numbers, not widely publicized.
China car sales fell 24% in August. It's the 11th straight month of decline in world's largest market.
China Car Market Sales YTD 2026 by Select Makers
Tesla down 12%
Toyota down 18%
VW down 26%
Mercedes down 29%
BYD down 33%
Honda down 37%
Chevy (discontinued China sales in August 2026, after selling only 36 vehicles all year).
In a market of 25 million units, a 24% decline represents a collapse of almost 6 million cars on an annual basis. That's the size of the entire Japan car market.
Sources: Marklines, Reuters, CPCA, Company reports.
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This is a colossal Chinese earthquake, with global aftershocks.
Chinese car brands' market share 2020-2026
2020: 36%
2022: 49%
2024: 65%
2026: 80% (f)
In the flat demand China market since 2020:
Global automakers: -11 million cars annually
Chinese automakers: +11 million cars annually
Call it market forces with Chinese characteristics.
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Uber's predicament.
“For AVs to scale, drivers have to lose,” one former Uber executive told the FT. “Uber’s goal is to survive the transition.”
Uber and Big Taxi unite in battle against Waymo via @ft
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Wow. A 35% swing would quicksand China auto export machine.
Exports - BYD’s oxygen. Now almost half of the company’s total sales.
“Overseas sales reached a record 179,841 units in July, up 124.3% year-on-year”
Exports - 43% of total sales for the month.”
H1 profit falls 20.5% as overseas growth fails to offset China weakness via @CnEVPost
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Two and a half years ago Elon Musk warned that without protection, Chinese automakers would “demolish” traditional automakers.
He called it.
This year Chinese cars are pouring into Europe, more than a million vehicles - forcing an existential reckoning at Volkswagen, Stellantis and others.
America is safe for now, protected by sky high tariffs. But that dam will not hold forever.
For America’s auto industry to avoid getting swallowed up by China, the nation must look West. Quickly.
My op-ed for The San Francisco Standard.
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From 65% to 25% share means a loss of 10 million China sales annually!
Assuming $25k average price that’s a loss of $250 billion in revenues annually.
Catastrophic.
