Dwarkesh Patel(@dwarkesh_sp):"Lab compute 3x-es year over year. For a lab to 10x revenue while continuing to only 3x compute, some combination of the following 3 things has to happen: 1. Lab margins have to increase, 2. The price of compute has to increase, 3. Labs have to spend a greater fraction of their compute on inference. My understanding is that basically all 3 of these things have been happening..." "Consider the price at which Google and Anthropic are renting compute from SpaceX. Google is reportedly paying $900 million a month for 110K GPUs [at] ... roughly 2x the spot price per hour for those GPUs. And the current spot price is itself 40% higher than it was in February."

2026.07.29 16:15

"Lab compute 3x-es year over year. For a lab to 10x revenue while continuing to only 3x compute, some combination of the following 3 things has to happen: 1. Lab margins have to increase, 2. The price of compute has to increase, 3. Labs have to spend a greater fraction of their compute on inference. My understanding is that basically all 3 of these things have been happening..." "Consider the price at which Google and Anthropic are renting compute from SpaceX. Google is reportedly paying $900 million a month for 110K GPUs [at] ... roughly 2x the spot price per hour for those GPUs. And the current spot price is itself 40% higher than it was in February."

Dwarkesh Patel@dwarkesh_sp

2026.07.29 15:05

New blog post on what would be true about the world if trendline continues and leading lab hits $1T in revenue by the end of next year. In other words, why compute might get 10x+ more expensive in coming years