【2026.5.15】The difference between the implied volatility of 1-month 25-delta put and call options on US tech stocks (i.e., option skewness) has decreased significantly (bottom right of the chart). While a decrease in option skewness is generally a positive sign, it is currently near historical lows, indicating excessive optimism and an underestimation of risk. Any extreme extreme in anything is a sign of a reversal, and option skewness nearing historical lows often foreshadows potential increases in short-term market volatility. Once external factors cause disruptions that fail to further drive market expectations, extreme optimism can turn into extreme disappointment. Therefore, when option skewness is at historical lows, leverage should be appropriately reduced and hedging protection increased. Similar to the VIX, extremely low volatility itself may only be noteworthy, but if several fatal combinations occur simultaneously (e.g., low volatility + high valuation + pessimistic options market + tightening PQ liquidity), especially in the RXM/SPX range... As previously discussed, this reflects the true risk appetite of market participants, meaning that option pricing is currently extremely cautious (low ratio). Meanwhile, market valuations are high, and volatility remains low (VIX remains low). Liquidity is tightening (PQ) (see the chart below for several dimensions).