Anthropic cannot win in the long-run because their DNA forbids it.
A knight in a crown will never be king.
If Anthropic ever develops a moat, it will be in life sciences. However, not only are they competing against commodified economics from other general labs (most of whom have other sustainable businesses), but they now must face competition from Demis, Jeff Dean, as well as established players in pharma.
Not an easy road ahead.
Show more
Scoop w/ @mhbergen, @RebeccaTorrenc5 & @EdLudlow: Isomorphic Labs, an AI-powered drug discovery startup spun out of Alphabet Inc.’s Google DeepMind, is in early talks to raise new funds at a valuation of at least $40 billion
More in @technology
Show more
Luna, and OpenAI more broadly, still wins on overall cost efficiency though. Haiku comes in at 3x+ pricier than Luna ($0.21 vs .07). This prob winds up closer to 4x or 5x once cost adjustments are made for long horizon tasks on Haiku, which are more expensive.
As enterprise clients develop benchmarks for job-relevant tasks, efficiency metrics will become more meaningful, as well as translate with higher fidelity to increased productivity among workers. Anthropic likely still has some catching up to do.
Show more
Haiku is 100x cheaper than Fable. 50x cheaper than Opus. And ~10x cheaper than GLM, its most popular open source peer. Great for users, bad for Anthropic (and tbf, OpenAI) revenue + valuations. Will see this tier grow among non-coding enterprise users...until hardware bottlenecks clear up and free local models devour it all
Show more
Race-to-the-bottom economics strikes again.
One thing that kept Anthropic's revenues afloat is its price premium over OpenAI. They're not winning the token volume game (see attached chart from ramp). sama and co will have of course have their own response to Anthropic's release barrage soon. but pray tell, how does a company meet hundreds of billions in compute commitments, when its prices are falling faster than token consumption rises? Not to mention cannibalization effects as corpo's move their wage slaves from Sonnet to Haiku to save $$ on drafting marketing emails and project updates.
Dario's $2T paradox.
Show more
Haiku 5.5 is especially good value on tasks under 100,000 tokens, which make up around 90% of requests to our previous Haiku model.
Can someone explain to me why Dario should command a 30%+ premium over sama (both on futures markets and rumored IPO / fundraising valuations), when OpenAI has comparable revenues growing at a faster rate? Many signs point to a very slow Q3 for Anthropic.
ps: great reporting as always, @MadisonMills22
Show more
This data is indexed to 100 and Anthropic peaked the week of 8/2 and is down 25% from that peak. Now this is customers using the Ramp Token spend management so it is some very small subset of Anthropic revenue. Vercel/Openrouter point the same way. This understates open-weight.
Show more
investors: "any comment on your stagnating revenues, race-to-the-bottom price mechanics, historic annual losses, and hundreds of billions in unfunded compute agreements?"
Dario: "yes please mark us at $2T so that we can prop up the market and protect your other bags from tanking"
Show more
Anthropic to meet prospective IPO investors on Oct. 14 at its San Francisco headquarters, Bloomberg reports.
A select group of institutional investors will reportedly get the chance to question senior executives ahead of a potential November listing.
Show more
the real Jevon's paradox: more volume means less revenue
NEW: AI Spend FALLS in the latest Ramp AI Index.
Price cuts at the frontier, in addition to cheaper and more efficient models at standard and lite levels, are pushing down the cost of using AI.
Open source models remain <5% of business spend. This decline in spend is driven almost exclusively by competition between OpenAI + Anthropic.
Show more
tbd whether that range holds, once the S-1 updates with stagnant revenue from Q3 (staleness cutoff is Nov 12th).
they probably postpone to 2027
ANTHROPIC SAID TO TARGET MEGA-IPO BEFORE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY
Anthropic said to weigh IPO marketing as soon as the week of November 9. Seems like they're going for a $1.8 - $2T range
Is this the real reason Trump wanted Warsh in charge? To take down Powell over Fed renovations???
*WARSH: FED TO COMMISSION SEPARATE, INDEPENDENT AUDIT OF PROJECT
@longphann_ @polynoamial
Results are even more impressive at max! 6.1 sol outperforms Opus 5.5 while using 4x fewer tokens.
emotional roller coaster for $ANTP holders over the last 12 hours. good model release by day, scary IPO numbers by night. If tomorrow's devday from OpenAI blows people away, that could mark the start of an ANTP / OpenAI valuation flippening...
Show more
1.8% MoM revenue increase. yes, I'm sure investors are head over heels about that number. that's why they won't divulge Aug and Sep financials and keep pushing back the IPO. totally on track for their imaginary $120B ARR by EOY and $200B by 2028!! $2T is for sure a no-brainer!
Show more
"Anthropic said nearly a quarter [$1B+] of its revenue came from two customers last year, and as part of its risk factors, warned that many of its largest clients were not locked into long-term contracts and could cut or stop spending."
Meta (already cut due to Muse Spark) and ... ? NVDA? Amazon? USG?
Show more
