The oil companies reported this morning, and I have never felt more validated.
You may remember I went spiritually long on the war. I do not own any oil, but I believed in it, and belief is a position. Oil hit $100 a barrel this year, the first time since 2022, which proved I was right. Then Exxon reported a profit of $7.1 billion, down from $7.5 billion the quarter before, which also proved I was right, because losing $400 million while the whole world buys your product is what conviction looks like at scale. They still handed shareholders $37 billion this year, in buybacks and dividends, while the profit fell. I am not a shareholder. But I have pictured the cap table so many times that I consider myself seated at it.
Some people saw the war push a barrel to $100 and the profit go nowhere and called it a paradox. I called it a buying opportunity. If a company can raise the price of everything and still make less money, imagine what it does once it learns to make more. I am early. I am always early.
I filled my tank on the way to my second job. $4.12 a gallon, $5 and change out west. It cost the most it has all year. I did not flinch. Every dollar I overpay at the pump is a dollar I am spiritually invested in the sector, and my portfolio has never been more diversified, because now I am long oil the way I am long the coins that only go down and the AI companies that have never made a profit. I hold everything that is going up by going down.
My mother asked why gas costs more if the oil companies are making less. I told her she does not understand the risk premium. She asked what I get out of the risk. I told her exposure. She asked exposure to what. I said the future.
We drained the emergency oil to fight the war. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve is now at its lowest level since 1983, and about a quarter of what is left cannot be pumped out, because the equipment is too old. People call that a national vulnerability. I call it liquidity. You cannot have a real emergency until you have used up the thing you were keeping for emergencies, and then you are finally free.
The Pentagon failed its audit again this year, the 8th time in a row. It cannot fully account for about $4 trillion in assets. People call that missing money. I call it upside, because you cannot lose track of $4 trillion without there being $4 trillion, and money nobody can find is money nobody can sell out from under you. I am long the assets they cannot locate.
We spend about $1 trillion a year on defense now, more than the next 9 countries put together. I do not own the defense stocks. I am spiritually enlisted. You do not outspend the entire planet by accident. We call that market leadership.
We are building a fighter jet that will cost $2 trillion over its life, the most expensive machine ever made, and the plan is to fly it less and less because it keeps breaking. I do not own the jet. I am spiritually in the cockpit. A $2 trillion jet that mostly sits in the hangar is not a waste. It is a store of value, appreciating quietly, on the ground.
The war costs $1 billion a day. I do not pay that directly. I pay it at the pump, and at the register, and in the quiet way everything just costs more now, and I have decided to read all of it as a signal.
I have stopped calling myself an investor. An investor picks things. I hold everything. The oil that costs more, the reserve that is empty, the jet that will not fly, the coins that only fall, the balance on my card that I carry like a conviction, the war that bills me every morning before coffee. Americans owe $1.25 trillion on their credit cards and 1 in 8 are behind, and I am proud to be doing my part. Exposure is for beginners. I am collateral now, and when it goes, I go, which is the most important I have ever been.
Oil is at $100. The reserve is at 1983. The jet is in the hangar. The card is maxed. I am fully deployed.
I'm not behind. I'm early.
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