There's panic right now that AI is eating indie software. I see it differently.
For 10+ years you could spin up a few hundred auto-generated pages, rank them, and let Google send you signups for free.
Now the answer people used to click your site for sits right inside ChatGPT and Google's AI overviews.
If your whole business ran on that one faucet, the water's turning off, and it feels like the end of the world.
And I've built a few of these projects, so I feel that darkness too.
But let's look at the data. Has it really gotten dark/worse for software founders and indie devs??
Let's look a Stripe Data...
New companies on Stripe Atlas are up 130% year over year. Companies are hitting $10M ARR within three months of launch at double last year's rate. One in five charges its first customer inside the first month, up from 8% in 2020. Fastest business formation anyone's ever recorded!!
And the solopreneurs, the exact people saying they're getting crushed, are winning the most.
63% of new companies on Atlas are solo founded, and AI native solo startups pull 2.3x the revenue by month 24. This category was basically non existent at the scale we're seeing rn like 5 years ago.
TLDR;
So my thinking it's a channel shift wearing a collapse costume. The people hurting share one setup: they sell inexpensive tools to other indie hackers, and/or their traffic comes from SEO.
That's the most exposed spot in the whole market, because your customers can rebuild your $20 SaaS in a weekend, and your traffic source is the exact thing the models replaced. Kinda feels like 2 cannons pointed at one little boat.
Call me an optimist, but here's my take....
Building software is a bigger game than it's ever been.
More companies, forming faster, making money sooner, run by fewer people, than any point in history.
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I'm seeing a trend here of declining revenue and traffic with indiehackers
On my own projects too
Maybe big VC products too but I wouldn't know cause they don't share revenue
To me it seems clear BigAI is cannibalizing everything that used to be apps
Not bad btw, just times are changing and we have to adapt
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