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fred hickey
@htsfhickey
Editor, The High-Tech Strategist since 1987.
Joined November 2010
55 Following    65K Followers
Excellent article (as usual) from WSJ's James Mackintosh titled: "AI Chip Mania Sows Seeds of Its Own Destruction" However, I have one quibble with this statement: "A final risk is that supercharged profits attract new rivals to enter the market. For now, that seems unlikely in the superfast memory Micron makes, but it’s already happening with other highly profitable chips used in AI." Here's a recent headline from DigiTimes: "China's memory capacity surge led by YMTC and CXMT shifts global supply in AI cycle" From the story: "Global memory markets are entering a new restructuring cycle driven by AI demand, with China's YMTC and CXMT scaling capacity and state-backed investment to gain share in a sector long led by US, South Korean, and Japanese suppliers." The AI-driven shortages (worst I've ever seen) have driven prices to the moon (temporarily), but the shortages (and profits and help from the Chinese government) are enabling the buildup of a larger, more potent competitive Chinese supplier threat to the "Big 3" DRAM makers - Micron, Samsung and Hynix. YMTC and CXMT are making inroads into the PC end market due to the datacenter buildout-driven shortages, but in addition, both suppliers are working on higher-end HBM DRAM offerings, with CMXT reportedly planning to ramp up HBM3 production later this year. So, the problem for the legacy DRAM makers will likely be both demand and supply driven in coming years. Eventually, the market will begin to discount a much more competitive environment in the commodity memory markets than was the case before this latest upcycle began.
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