Keith, I expect this bear market to be a drawn-out process (I could be wrong on this). In 2000, the bubbleheads gave up only grudgingly and kept rotating into so-called "safe havens." After the dot.coms blew up first in March, they rotated into PC-related stocks such as Intel & then when that cratered in the Fall of 2020, they rotated into the Ciscos,EMCs & Suns (they collapsed later). Investors have been trained to "buy the dip" - which has seemed to be a successful strategy (until it doesn't work). Investors still care nothing about valuations. That's why the P/E ratios of AAPL, COST, & WMT & other "safe havens" remain in the stratosphere. They're supposedly "safe." But they're not. You're right. Apple is a hot mess. Apple guided lower with their Q2 report and the stock fell hard. Then the boys rallied it to a record high. Apple guided lower again with their Q3 report this week, the stock initially fell hard again (I sold most of my puts) and then rallied to another record high. I expect they'll guide lower in late January too. As we get closer to that point, and we get past a likely seasonal rally around the upcoming holidays (& also because the techs may be oversold currently), I plan to increase my puts against AAPL again. I've kept some of my longer-term AAPL puts (in case I'm wrong about this scenario). But inevitably, AAPL is going a lot lower. It's just a matter of timing. I don't normally respond to many questions, but yours is a good one, and you've been a very long-term subscriber to the HTS. So, thank you.

Yes, I replied to someone on X yesterday: "I needed to see what happened with Apple and tonight's mid-term election (including the potential impact on AI) before it's published. It's (almost) always written during the first week of the month. Best guess is Thursday." Difficult task this month with all the election turmoil (and its ramifications) coming in the midst of the newsletter process.

I've posted the lead story in the Wall Street Journal tonight below. The caption was: "Apple Beat Wall Street Expectations With Boost From Higher Prices," but after the (poor) conference call guidance, it's now changed (more accurately) to: "Apple's Growth Machine Is Slowing. High Prices Might Not Save It." I slogged through the first part of the conference call where Apple's CEO mentioned the growth percentages for segments where Apple's results were strong, but somehow neglected the percentages where they weren't so hot (iPad revenues -10% Y/Y, Wearables -8% Y/Y, Services (slight miss). The first part of the call was all spin & propaganda - "thrilled" and "excited" etc. I even learned the important fact that Apple is using more recycled components in their products to protect the earth (I almost needed a barf bag). But as usual, the truth had to come out with the guidance: significantly lower revenue growth in the current quarter, further deterioration in Service business growth - partly due to lower fee rates in "certain countries" (which will only worsen with time), lower product margins (that are still supported - for now - by lower cost "carry-in inventory"), and an "unprecedented impact" from memory price hikes which will negatively impact current quarter results and continue into 2027. As usual, analysts did their best to support the Apple (and Wall Street) cause, asking softball and leading questions - with no one even mentioning the Duo (foldable phone) screen cracking problem or the poor yield rates at their Chinese manufacturers that are the primary cause of the Duo's long lead times. The problem for the Apple spinmeisters is that the stock is priced for perfection and this guidance is far from that. A quote from the WSJ story: "Oppenheimer analyst Martin Yang noted that Apple stock trades at 36 times next year’s expected earnings, a premium to the overall market, even though its earnings are only expected to grow 1%, which is slower than its tech peers." The so-called stock market's "safe haven" is a very dangerous place for investors to hide.

When Apple blows up and the overall AI-driven tech bubble pops (that could already be in process), there will be no long-term worries for gold owners. Only short-term liquidation pressure risk (a buying opportunity). Rate hikes will be out the window, likely followed by rate cuts and another round of massive QE money printing from the Fed.

From tonight's Almost Daily Grants: "One indicator suggests that the iPhone manufacturer will be hard-pressed to please its investors. Craig Moffett, co-founder and one-half eponym of research firm MoffettNathanson, pointed out yesterday that handset upgrade rates from Verizon, AT&T and T-Mobile “were down sharply” in the most recent quarter.  The bulk of that period took place before Apple rolled out its latest iteration smartphone in mid-September, but the downshift “carries implications for Apple’s earnings report on Monday [and] also for the fourth calendar quarter, as the trends appear likely to continue,” Moffett relayed." My take: Could be a major wake-up call for the brazen AAPL stock buyers following Monday night's results. So much risk (see my prior tweet as well as this one) and so little upside considering the 40 PE - which is more than 2x Apple's historical average. At a $5+ Trillion market cap for AAPL and retail investors "all-in" with this stock market (and with $1.5T of margin debt - not including hedge funds' margin), AAPL - possibly the most crowded trade in history thanks to the mindless "rotation" that's been occurring - could have major repercussions in an already massively overvalued and shaky stock market.

Some important data points as we approach Apple's earnings report on Monday (very unusual for Apple to report results on a Monday - normally it would have occurred last night): Apple is the 4th largest PC seller in the world. PCs accounted for 9.5% of Apple's revenues last quarter. iPad computers accounted for another 5.6%. Total exposure: 15% of revenues. Apple's Q2 Mac PC Y/Y revenue growth was +29%. Omdia''s PC Market Pulse estimated Apple Mac PC unit shipments were up +16% Y/Y in Q2. Omdia's Mac PC unit shipment estimate for Q3: -11%. No reported estimates for tablets, but same headwinds as for PCs. Unlike Dell & HP, Apple does not have computer server shipments into datacenters to offset this. Apple's iPhone sales in Q2 grew 22% Y/Y. IDC estimates unit sales in Q2 were up 15%. IDC's iPhone shipment estimate for Q3: -4%. IDC: “Current indicators suggest that the market has not yet reached the bottom,” IDC research director Nabila Popal said. “Memory costs have surged approximately 350 percent since last year and are still rising, creating substantial pressure on vendor margins and shipments. The worst is yet to come.” Tim Cook called the memory price surge "a 100-year flood." Apple's margins were already under pressure in recent quarters. Shipment lead times for the new iPhone 18 Pros have collapsed vs. last year's iPhone 17 models. In much of Asia (including China) current wait times are reportedly down to single days. This weakness should impact current Q4 results. Reportedly, Apple recently cut iPhone 18 orders to its suppliers by 10% to 15%. Apple's Duo foldable phone is in great shortage because of manufacturing problems with hinges and screens. Reportedly they were getting only 60% yields according to their Chinese manufacturers. Apparently, some of the "good" units shipped weren't very good either - leading to this week's "Crackgate" screen reports from upset buyers. Reviewers have generally panned the Duo. Too heavy, poor camera, clunky buttons. A good part of the initial "demand" came from scalpers who could sell the rare Duos for twice their cost. Apple's Service revenue growth rates have been in sharp decline in recent quarters. Per Sensor Tower data, U.S. App Store revenues in Q2 went negative (that upset Apple shareholders in Q2). The U.S decline worsened in Q3: -7% Y/Y. Apple's Service revenues should be under more pressure in Q4 in Europe as the new EU fee agreement began on October 1. App Store In-App Purchases (IAP): Standard commission reduced from 30% to 26% (and from 15% to 15% / 10% for small businesses and auto-renewing subscriptions after Year 1). EU accounts for approximately 7% of Apple's Services business. Other countries globally are similarly pressuring App store fees lower. A human (me) using his brain put this information together. The computer-driven stock buyers simply "rotate" into Apple's stock when semiconductors stocks fall or when the AI building capex binge comes into question. Supposedly, Apple's stock is a "safe haven." But it wasn't a safe haven in late-July when Apple reported Q2 results and the stock plummeted 45 points over two days (a record high 345 to 300). In last night's trading, Apple hit another record high (352.93) on more rotation after AMZN & INTC stocks sold off hard on their results. Apple is a low growth (or maybe no growth or worse in the near future) company trading at a $5.1 trillion market cap (largest in the world), a 40 P/E and Price/Sales ratio of 11 (historically high for Apple). What could go wrong (on Monday)?

More examples that I've run into today of NOT "Super Intelligence." Agnico Eagle reported results tonight. I just went to Yahoo Finance to pull up the press release, and I see the following lead sentence in the "summary" of results below (clearly AI-generated). "AEM is up $2.40to $183.11 and is trading near its 52-week high after reporting third-quarter 2026 results after the close, with higher gold prices helping offset production and cost pressure." A 52-week high?? Just inches away on the same screen it says AEM's 52-week high is $255.24. It's not even close to a 52-week high (28% lower). No human being (or fact checker) would make such an error. Earlier today, I asked a popular AI model if there were "any downgrades of Apple today (October 28)?" The answer it gave me was yes: from Loop Capital - and then it gave me the details. But I knew that the Loop Capital downgrade occurred over a week ago, not today. These AI models are very unreliable. And that's a big problem.

Gundlach: “What are you waiting for? You just upgraded the economy right here,” he said, referring to Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh’s comments about a strong macroeconomic environment during the central bank’s post-decision news conference. “We’re headed to 4% handle headline CPI. The commodity index is rising in a bull market, and I don’t understand why the Fed is so reluctant to move.” Reminder: Historically, gold does very well in a rising rate environment (think 1970s)...when the Fed is behind the curve. Today, the Fed is behind the curve. I think all those chart weenies who are now so negative on gold are going to be forced to change direction (grudgingly).

More evidence that the Chinese have been heavy gold buyers around the $4,000 price level. "Domestic gold demand is increasingly running against the price trend, strengthening as prices fall," Wu said. "On the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE), China's main bullion marketplace, the Au99.99 contract traded 43 million lots last week. That equals roughly 430 tons and marked its busiest week since April, Bloomberg reported." "Buyers must pay in full and take delivery, so the volume reflects physical purchases rather than leveraged bets." Now a little help from the Fed (just get past this FOMC meeting with Western speculators positioned for a hawkish view)?

As usual, the Chinese are doing their part: opportunistically buying when the West (mostly speculators currently) are dumping gold. Gold options & futures expirations today & tomorrow (always a tricky period for gold) and FOMC meeting tomorrow as well. We should have a better idea about whether we've already seen the gold bottom (a successful retest - which is my suspicion) over the next few days.

Apple's Duo foldable is finally here! (sort of). Some early adopters (as always) are buying this "miserable fat little thing," but another (large) group of buyers are the scalpers who can sell them for 2x the original price. Why? Because Apple can't make enough of them in volume (reportedly only 60% yields according to their Chinese manufacturers). Problems with hinges & screens. "But they (reviewers) panned its cramped front-facing screen, mediocre camera, clunky buttons and heavy weight." I'm looking forward to hearing the complaints from the early adopters, but I'm even more excited to see Apple's Q3 results and Q4 guidance on Nov. 2. Anyone remember the Q2 debacle when Apple's numbers were weak and guidance disappointed? A $45 plunge over 2 days to $300. Apple's stock was hardly a "safe haven." Moreover, Apple's Nov 2 numbers should be even worse. "Counterpoint Research said sales of this year’s iPhone Pro and Pro Max were up 3% compared with the same models last year in the first three weeks after launch, but overall sales fell." There were no lower-end iPhone models this year (they normally account for more than one-quarter of sales), so the fact that Pro models were only up 3% is an issue. Apple recently cut iPhone 18 orders to its suppliers by 10% to 15%. According to analysts, iPhone 18 Pro resale prices have gone to discounts earlier than a year ago and lead times have rapidly declined. Also, Apple reportedly has layoffs in the works. In the past, Apple layoffs were a "last resort." IDC estimates Apple's Mac PC sales fell 11% year over year in Q3. They were up 13% in Q2. U.S. App Store revenues (a problem in Q2) fell even more in Q3 (-7% Y/Y) per Sensor Tower data. Then there are the margin problems from soaring semiconductor memory components (+400% in some cases) and other components. Doubtful that $100 price hikes will offset. So, the highest valued (market cap) stock in the world (having overtaken Nvidia this A.M.) might be a bit of a problem on Nov. 2 (or before) for all the investors and speculators crowded into this "safe haven" at a $5 trillion market cap, 11 times sales and 39 P/E.

Not the kind of headline in the WSJ that AI datacenter builders want to see when they're spending trillions of dollars: "AI’s Transformational Value Remains Elusive for Most Companies" Just "Thirteen percent of CIOs report that their organizations realized significant or transformational value from AI, according to a Gartner survey of 2,002 CIOs and technology executives released this week at Gartner IT Symposium" And CIOs (Chief Information Officers) are the ones most likely to claim they're seeing the benefits. CFO opinions would likely be even lower.

I've had the opportunity to watch Jensen for the better part of three decades, so I know what to expect. Now all the newcomers will get to see whether his statements are reliable or not. "CoreWeave's strength is improving every day," Huang shared at a Bloomberg event in Stockholm. "I'm optimistic. Their cost of capital is actually decreasing."

Surprised I'm not seeing this story in the major financial media. Gartner is an esteemed research house. Found it in The Register. Title: "The AI math isn't mathing as infrastructure spending forecast to outstrip expected revenue" Subtitle: "Analyst predicts 80% of neoclouds will disappear as standalone businesses by 2030" "Gartner estimates AI datacenter operators would need to generate a total of $8.5 trillion in revenue to cover capital spending and financing costs while achieving that return." "Unfortunately, it forecasts that the total enterprise and consumer AI revenue that can be attributed to AI datacenters during this period will add up to no more than $3.6 trillion." "The result will be a shake-out of the companies providing AI infrastructure services, and Gartner believes that neocloud operators – "GPU-as-a-service" providers specializing in AI compute – will be the hardest hit. It forecasts that 80 percent of them won't survive as independent companies beyond 2030."

From Domino's earnings call: “Same-store sales grew 0.3%. Our business continued to be impacted by a challenging macro environment, which is pressuring consumers. The comp reflected order count growth in our core business, along with continued growth in our aggregator business. This was partially offset by a lower average ticket. While our ticket trend improved from the second quarter, it was impacted by a sequential decline in items per order in both our carryout and first-party delivery business. We believe this was due to the challenging consumer environment. "

Gold up another $50 (+$83 in less than 2 days) with bonds yields up again today & DXY (US$) slightly higher (not supposed to be happening according to the computer algos). Guess who is driving the gold bus? Not a coincidence that the Chinese are back (yesterday) from Golden Week holidays. Still no stirrings from the Western speculators (gold isn't expensive enough yet - as they only buy when gold has risen a lot).