Jack Clark
@jackclarkSF
@AnthropicAI, ONEAI OECD, co-chair @indexingai, writer @ https://t.co/3vmtHYkIJ2 Past: @openai, @business @theregister. Neural nets, distributed systems, weird futures
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Very nice post pushing back on my "RSI 60% by EOY 2028" claim. I particularly like how @sudoraohacker surfaces some hard benchmarks that give him a more bearish view on RSI (though he still thinks possible in ~10 years). https://t.co/fLEiHDUHQg
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Will We See AI with Recursive Self Improvement in 2028? Likely Not., by @raohackr
https://t.co/pXOH7WKaxV
@karinanguyen My whole experience doing this project was finding endless "up and to the right" graphs at all resolutions of AI R&D, from the well known (e.g., SWE-Bench) to more niche (like those above). It's a fractal, but at all the resolutions you see the same trend of meaningful progress.
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@karinanguyen There's also MLE-Bench, which is ecologically valid (tasks come from real kaggle competitions) and involves building a very diverse set of ML apps to solve specific problems. The same progress shows up here. https://t.co/fS4kWoM5gw
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I've spent the past few weeks reading 100s of public data sources about AI development. I now believe that recursive self-improvement has a 60% chance of happening by the end of 2028. In other words, AI systems might soon be capable of building themselves.
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Announcing the 2026 Cosmos Lecture.
Anthropic co-founder and Cosmos Founding Fellow @jackclarkSF will be speaking at Oxford on how to live a self-directed life in the AI age.
Apply for tickets here: https://t.co/YbIlYVc5M2 https://t.co/mOIRPRb0iY
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Import AI will be skipping this week. I have a big essay I've been working on relating to AI progress and it will come out in the next issue.
Opus 4.7 is quite good at this and I'm excited about the story I've written - will be in Import AI 454.
The most satisfying use I've found for AI in writing (besides basic copy-editing), is having AI systems write the words used by AI systems in my fiction. This feels important to me - I let the synthetic intelligence animate itself within a narrative construct I have built.
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I will be giving a lecture in Oxford on May 20th called "Change is inevitable. Autonomy is not". Excited for people to hear it, and I hope to publish it afterwards as well.
My toddler couldn't sleep so they snuggled next to me on the couch while I read an extremely dry and finicky Huawei paper on low-bit precision training. It was oddly beautiful to be pecking away at my newsletter while my kid occasionally made me take breaks to quack like a duck.
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Join me this Wednesday in SF for an event celebrating the new book from NPR's Planet Money team. We'll talk about the impact of AI on society, how we think about the future at Anthropic, and maybe read some of my Import AI writing. More info: https://t.co/NiZBnk9bTM https://t.co/TAhgX3Z8PO
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Anthropic believes that good transparency legislation needs to ensure public safety and accountability for the companies developing this powerful technology, not provide a get-out-of-jail-free card against all liability. https://t.co/2qjlUaQ05p
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Introducing Project Glasswing: an urgent initiative to help secure the world’s most critical software.
It’s powered by our newest frontier model, Claude Mythos Preview, which can find software vulnerabilities better than all but the most skilled humans.
https://t.co/NQ7IfEtYk7
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Comms lead: https://t.co/gHjxAfMMk1
Strategy & operations: https://t.co/9c4hVIYGky
We're hiring for a couple of important roles:
1) Communications lead: Seeking excellent writers with big ideas. Talk to me or @maxwellcyoung .
2) An operational wizard to scale the Policy and TAI orgs, working closely with me and Sarah Heck to run the orgs.
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Here’s what I’ve been working on recently: @anthropicai. I’ll be spending a lot of my time on measurement and assessment of our AI systems, as well as thinking of ways govs/others can assess AI tech. There’s a lot to do!
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