LLMs can shift people's beliefs.
But most persuasion studies only check beliefs before and after a conversation.
We built PersuasionTrace to measure beliefs turn by turn, so we can study how belief updates actually unfold.
Can LLMs use ToM to genuinely persuade you, or do they just use good rhetoric?
In our new preprint, we use the MINDGAMES framework to test this. Surprisingly, LLMs like o3 can be incredibly effective persuaders *without* actually understanding your mental states. 🧵👇