Anthropic just lost its bid to pause the government's supply chain designation while the legal fight plays out. A 3-judge DC Circuit panel (one level below SCOTUS) ruled the "equitable balance cuts in favor of the government." To win a stay, you need to show (1) you're likely to win the underlying case and (2) you'll suffer irreparable harm beyond just money. The court shot down both — and used Dario's own words against him on the irreparable harm question. The panel of judges they drew couldn't have been better for the Administration if they'd picked themselves. So what's next? Anthropic could push for full en banc review — all 11 DC Circuit judges weighing in. But given the expedited briefing schedule set for May, it's hard to see the full court stepping in before the 3-judge panel rules on the merits which I expect could come in June. TLDR – at a minimum Anthropic’s relationship with the DoW will likely remain in limbo for another two months, unless the parties settle sooner.