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Khing Oei
@khingoei
Founder & CEO @Treasury_BTC. Chair @cypherpunk. Founder @maicrotrader. Ex Hedge Fund Founder/CIO, @GoldmanSachs, Fortress
2.4K Following    12.8K Followers
The 30-year traded at its highest since 2007 this week. Today the US Treasury responded, at least doubling its buybacks of 10 to 30 year paper, funded where Treasury always funds, at the bill end. Duration comes out of the market and gets refinanced at controlled short rates. The Fed ran this trade in 1961 and called it Operation Twist. This version is run by the fiscal authority, while the Fed's own minutes show officials arguing for a hike. Our market has seen these mechanics before. Issue at the short end, retire discounted long-end claims, keep the funding rate pinned with a deep-pocketed backstop. It is @saylor's and $MSTR's liability management playbook, executed on the sovereign balance sheet. Financing the buybacks with bills shortens the maturity of the entire US debt stock, moving it to the one point on the curve where the policy rate sets the price. Deutsche Bank called it soft financial repression, and repression is a tax on whoever holds the sovereign's paper. Assets without an issuer sit outside its reach. Dollar at a three month low, gold up 3.7%, bitcoin:native up 5.8%, its biggest day since March.
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Tranching is the oldest technology in credit. A 47% drawdown in the collateral and the pref still finishes the year up 9%, because the common beneath it absorbed the entire move. The -27% to +9% spread across the stack is seniority being priced in real time. What is new is the collateral. Bitcoin trades 24/7 at a live market price, so the entire structure is marked continuously, something no mortgage pool or loan book ever offered.
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