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Killa
@KillaXBT
Quantitative trader, 7 years. (Opening October 1st)
159 Following    233.4K Followers
Pinnacle of mid range... $BTC Sandwiched between two LTF liquidity clusters. If we sweep the PWL, that is where I would look to long. If not and we begin pushing back towards the highs, personally, I would not be looking to short. Monthly close approaching + quarterly close. Hunts are possible.
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We only dropped 53% this bear cycle. So you see them 25-30% corrections we saw in previous bull cycles? They are not happening. Volatility compression. Study. That my friends is a thing of the past. What makes me laugh is seeing people compare 2014 or 2018 to now. $BTC was a few billion dollar asset back then, today it sits at roughly a 1.5T market cap. You cannot compare an asset that has dynamically shifted to this extent. It’s like comparing a small cap stock to a global mega cap and expecting identical behaviour. Retardio if you ask me. Want actual valuable advice? You are not getting anything more than a 15% drop to enter your longs all the way upto 126K. Dynamics change, people unfortunately don't.
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Well, that’s ironic isn’t it 😂
When we start getting weekend pumps, you know we are in a bull market. Front running legacy over weekends has always been a very telling sign.
The range is higher, not lower... $BTC People are not ready.
We have just 10 days left of this $BTC bear market. You already know my view, but when comparing prior cycles, the cycle low is effectively confirmed unless BTC somehow nukes below 57K within the next 10 days. Each bear market cycle lasts 365 days. We are on 355. Its done.
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We have 20 days left of this $BTC bear market.
Speaking from a lot of experience here... I have seen it all. It happens every single cycle, all the time. "It needs to have a healthy correction." "It needs to take liquidity below." I can assure you, it doesn’t. It does not need to do anything. It does not need a "healthy" correction, and it certainly does not need to take liquidity below us either. People always bring this up when the market is simply in disbelief. And it is clear that is precisely where we are now: disbelief. The only thing people want now is a good retracement, a solid retest, and then they will happily "long," so to speak. Well unfortunately for you, that is not an inherent characteristic of how a bull market is designed to function, especially given we are still way below 126K. The entire rally to 126K should be violent and relatively quick. You will not get ideal retraces. You will not get ideal retests. The market is not going to give you that luxury, hence why positioning beforehand is always smartest. The market does not feel sorry for you & it does not owe you anything. Because now, if you are sidelined, their are only 2 things you are doing: 1.) Trying to rationalise or justify why it needs to retrace to fill your long. 2.) Shorting in hopes it retests your level out of spite, just to be in the market. A mistake which, again, 90% of people make. Longs from below end up closing too soon. 60K longers? Most probably closed already. 76K longers? Same thing. You might think the market is heavily long just because it pushed up 50% from the lows, but you are not factoring in how the market naturally rebalances itself when people take profits too soon. Especially after being down only for 10 months. You do not use your brain in a bull market. You bid pullbacks. That is it. It is that simple. Yet the simplest things are the hardest for people to follow because they cannot accept that it can be that easy, when it literally is that easy. So my advice is to completely ignore people like this. There is a good chance they hold zero $BTC and are simply reacting out of spite for missing the move. The market can go up only. Just look at the weekly and monthly TFs through previous bull cycles up to new ATHs. It is pretty much up only, so there is no reason to assume this time will be different.
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It quite literally can only go up only... $BTC People are overcomplicating something very simple because, if it looks too obvious, it cannot happen. We’ve formed a weekly HH while positioning has fully reset. There is quite literally nothing to be bearish about.
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Stubborn bears... they never change. iykyk.
$SOL is up 75% since the entry I shared publicly. You can be bullish or bearish, but the real question is... did you actually tell people when you executed, or are you just posting the same cliché tweets after the move?
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Sell me all your $SOL below $76 an f*ck off.
When we start getting weekend pumps, you know we are in a bull market. Front running legacy over weekends has always been a very telling sign.
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Forward to community
I have seen this scenario blasted on my TL 50 times. Lets see if @cz_binance allows it.
Monthly open pivot approaching. 6/7 times, $BTC has seen a pump around the monthly open, usually because PA was bearish heading into it. So if we dump into October, I’d expect a push higher afterwards. If we pump into it instead, I’d be far more cautious.
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We are never seeing $50K again. We are never seeing $60K again. You would be lucky to even see sub $70K again. Every single time $BTC has created a new weekly high, the trend shifted. Why assume this time will be any different?
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BREAKING: 10% chance Bitcoin drops to $50,000 before $100,000 A $1,000 trade pays out $10,000 if it happens
The real questions you should be asking yourself is: (1) Who has been rekt? (2) Which positions have been closed? (3) What is the prevailing trend? (4) Is positioning actually overheated? Once you reach the relevant conclusion: Late longs have been flushed. Leveraged longs have capitulated. Positioning has been reset. The HTF trend remains bullish. All whilst we are still holding above the prior weekly range highs after 3 weeks of consolidation below 83K. So, I ask myself: if I were an institution deploying billions, would you look at current sentiment and conclude that the market is overcrowded long? Because with all of these metrics aligning, it appears most people are still underexposed and hesitant to take the initiative to build positions. Most are not positioned. This is infact, a fact, based on metrics. The entire leverage dynamic has reset, regardless of what people are saying. Meanwhile, trend remains bullish. Where is maximum pain from here? Is it really lower, when the positions that needed flushing have already been flushed? Is another move down even going to hurt people if leverage has already been cleared out? Not to mention, 90% of people never caught the move to 87K in the first place. I beg to differ... $BTC
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I find this pretty insane. Open interest has completely flushed back to the same levels we saw when $BTC was trading at 76K, yet price is at 84K. To me, that looks extremely healthy.
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Take a look around. Everyone wants lower, not higher. Max pain is up. Not down.
Exciting times ahead... $BTC Don't overcomplicate things in a bull market.
I think alot of people are not ready for how quickly this cycle is going to progress. Unfortunately, my point is being proven. The cycles are speeding up, this has been my inveitable theory that over time, $BTC will become more like a indicy asset with minimal downside volatility. Bottoming at 54% is a very telling sign that its happening sooner & I can almost assure you we will 100% form new ATH's before halvings. I think halving bull years might slowly progressively develop into a thing of the past. As in the end, all that matters is liquidity. So, don't be surprised when you see BTC defy everyones logic, it has to do this, it has to do that, because it most certainly doesnt. And that is the main reason why I postioned early, ahead, and so far its worked out perfectly as anticipated.
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I’ve decided to move my $BTC hedge short entry to 93.6K. Will it take time to reach? More than likely. But based on the current structure, it is the only HTF area I am watching. If price reaches my region, I plan to hedge 100% of my exposure, including spot, continuation longs, and swing longs,with invalidation around 99-100K. From there, I’d be targeting a 10–15% correction. If developing price action gives me reason to adjust the plan or entry, I’ll update you all, but for now, these are the limits I have in place.
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If you’re currently sidelined, my approach would be to deploy around 10% of your capital each week, gradually building to full exposure over the next couple of months. Don’t be the person looking back 1-2 years from now with regret because you were too stubborn to pull the trigger, endlessly waiting for lower prices that may never come.
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It’s not a matter of if, but when. $BTC is not going back to $60K. Bear market bottoms almost always front run major liquidity. The most likely scenario is that we eventually take the liquidity above after plenty of hunts designed to make everyone shit themselves first.
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