US bond market volatility is at historic levels. The MOVE index jumped +19% last week, its largest weekly increase since April 2025, following "Liberation Day." This index is also called the "VIX of bonds" and measures the yield volatility of 2Y, 5Y, 10Y, and 30Y Treasuries. This marks its 3rd-largest weekly increase since the 2022 bear market. The move comes as the 10Y Note Yield jumped +17 basis points last week, to 5.17%, its highest level since June 2007. At the same time, the 30Y Note Yield rose +16 basis points and surpassed 5.50% for the first time since June 2004. To put this into perspective, in the week ending March 17th, 2023, the MOVE Index surged +29% following the US banking crisis, when 3 regional banks collapsed. The US Treasury market is experiencing crisis-like volatility.

Asset owners are the only winners in this economy. The top 0.1% saw a +$29.76 million increase in real net worth per household from Q4 2024 to Q2 2026. Over the same period, the top 1% experienced a +$5.83 million surge in inflation-adjusted net worth per household. By comparison, the bottom 50% saw an increase of just +$1,960 per household. In other words, the top 0.1% has gained +15,183 times more wealth per household than the bottom 50% since 2024. The top 0.1% has seen their real wealth rise +$4.44 trillion over this period, while the bottom 50% added just +$198 billion. Own assets or be left behind.

BREAKING: The Consumer Sentiment Index fell -3.6 points in September, to 48.1, its 2nd-lowest level in history. This marks the 2nd consecutive monthly decline, totaling -7.1 points. This comes as the Current Conditions Index decreased -1.0 point, to 50.9, its 4th-lowest reading on record. At the same time, the Consumer Expectations Index dropped -5.2 points, to 46.3, its 2nd-lowest since 1980. This year, the sentiment has deteriorated for all groups by age, education, geography, political party and income. The decline has been driven by a higher cost-of-living, as higher fuel prices, persistent inflation, rising mortgage rates, and weaker purchasing power. Consumer sentiment is at crisis levels.

BREAKING: Retail investors sold -$300 million in ETFs on Wednesday, their largest daily sale on record. This also surpasses the previous daily record of -$260 million set during the 2020 pandemic. This comes as the semiconductor ETF, $SOXX, alone recorded -$270 million in retail outflows, its largest daily retail withdrawal in at least 12 months. As a result, $SOXX posted -$695 million in total outflows last week, the largest weekly outflow since mid-August. At the same time, investors withdrew -$1.2 billion from the 3x leveraged long semiconductor ETF, $SOXL, their largest weekly withdrawal since June. Furthermore, the Momentum ETF, $MTUM, saw -$12 million in retail outflows on Wednesday, following -$30 million on Tuesday. Retail investors are locking in gains in tech.

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Central banks are likely buying way more gold than official figures suggest: World central banks acquired +44 tonnes of gold in July, +158% above the pre-2022 average of +17 tonnes, according to Goldman Sachs. This brings the 3-month average of purchases to +91 tonnes, near its highest since mid-2025. By comparison, the 12-month moving average has oscillated between +50 and +60 tonnes over the last few months. Meanwhile, official central bank purchases of gold stood at +23 tonnes in July, or 21 tonnes below actual levels. Furthermore, official monthly purchases have not exceeded +60 tonnes in any month since November 2024, also representing a wide discrepancy. Central bank gold demand may be much greater than official figures suggest.

Non-US investors own more US stocks than ever: Investors from outside the US held $24.32 trillion of US equities in July, the 3rd-largest amount in history. Year-to-date, foreign holdings of US equities have surged +$2.22 trillion, or +10%. Since the 2022 bear market, this figure has soared +$12.3 trillion, or +103%. As a result, foreign allocation to US equities jumped to a record 60% of their US financial assets. This proportion now stands ~6 percentage points above the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble peak. Foreign appetite for US equities is historically strong.

AI stocks are massively outperforming the global market: The Bloomberg Global AI index has surged +118% since the start of 2024, to near its all-time high. At the same time, the MSCI World Index has risen +57%, underperforming by 61 percentage points. By comparison, the MSCI Emerging Market Index has soared +70% over this period, to near its all-time high. Since the start of 2024, AI stocks have generated an average annualized return of +38%, double the +19% annualized return of global equities over the same period. The AI index has also significantly outperformed emerging markets, which have delivered an annualized return of +23%. AI stocks have left the rest of the global market far behind.

Fixed-income assets are offering attractive yields again: 10Y Note Yield is currently trading above 5.10%, its highest level since July 2007. At the same time, 30Y Note Yield is up to 5.44%, its highest since June 2007. Investment-grade credit now yields 5.7%, its highest level since April 2024, followed by high-yield credit at 7.5%, its highest since May 2025. Furthermore, private credit offers yields of 8.3% while risk-free money market funds offer 3.6%. This marks a remarkable shift from the previous decade, when near-zero interest rates made it difficult to generate meaningful income from traditional fixed-income assets. Higher for longer is creating meaningful income opportunities.

The average US stock is struggling. The ratio of the equal-weighted S&P 500 to the S&P 500 index is down to 1.11, its 3rd-lowest level since April 2003. This ratio has declined for 5 consecutive weeks by a total of -5.5%. Over this period, the equal-weighted S&P 500 has fallen -4.4% while the S&P 500 has increased by +0.8%. This also puts the ratio on track for its 4th consecutive annual decline, the longest streak since 1999. By comparison, this metric peaked at 1.60 in April 2015. AI is carrying the entire stock market.

Retail investors are trading less. Over the last 20 trading days, retail investors have purchased just +$1 billion of single stocks, near the lowest 20-day total in at least 2 years. In early August, this figure even briefly turned negative for the first time since at least October 2024. By comparison, retail's 20-day purchases stood at +$20 billion in April 2025. Furthermore, total retail equity purchases have declined to +$10 billion over the last 20 trading days, near their lowest reading since at least October 2024. Retail equity purchases are now down -67% from the +$30 billion recorded over the 20-day period in February 2026. Retail investors are becoming more cautious.

BREAKING: 331 S&P 500 companies mentioned AI during their Q2 2026 earnings calls, the 3rd-largest reading on record. This figure has more than quadrupled since Q3 2022. This also marks the 4th consecutive quarter in which more than 300 companies have mentioned AI. Not surprisingly, 97% of Information Technology firms mentioned AI during their Q2 earnings calls. Financials and Communication Services followed, at 91% and 90%, respectively. Only Utilities, Materials, and Consumer Staples had fewer than half of companies mentioning "AI." AI is dominating corporate conversations.

Big tech has never been bigger. The 2 largest S&P 500 companies, Nvidia, $NVDA, and Apple, $AAPL, now account for 15% of the index’s market cap, an all-time high. This comes as $NVDA represents a record 8%, while $AAPL accounts for 7%. By comparison, the combined weight of Exxon Mobil, $XOM, and Apple, $AAPL, peaked at ~8% in 2011. During the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble, Microsoft, $MSFT, and General Electric, $GE, topped at ~9% in 1999. Before 2020, the 2 largest stocks never accounted for more than 10% of the index’s market cap. The US equity market has never been this concentrated.

BREAKING: Global debt jumped by more than +$10 trillion in H1 2026, to a record $365 trillion. Emerging-market debt drove the increase, rising +$6.5 trillion, to a record $110 trillion, with most of the surge coming from governments and non-financial companies. Excluding China, emerging-market and developing-economy debt soared to a record $38 trillion. Global debt now stands at ~310% of global GDP, although the ratio has fallen -25 percentage points from its early-2021 peak, largely because inflation has boosted nominal GDP rather than because of deleveraging. Meanwhile, developed economies paid more than $3.3 trillion in interest on marketable government debt over the last year, exceeding estimated global spending on AI at $2.6 trillion, defense at $3.1 trillion, and clean energy at $2.3 trillion. This comes as annual government interest payments across the G7 alone surged +85% YoY. The global debt crisis is in uncharted territory.

BREAKING: The US and China have reached a trade deal to lower tariffs on $30 billion worth of "non-sensitive goods" after President Trump and President Xi met this week. This deal will likely lower prices on a variety of consumer goods, including small appliances, toys, holiday decorations, and kids' car seats. In return, China will cut tariffs on agricultural goods and seafood, wood products, cosmetics, and medical devices. China has also agreed to import 10 million metric tons of US coal in 2027 and 2028. Rare earths are still being discussed, the White House said.

BREAKING: President Trump officially announces that he has rejected Iran's proposal for a 7-day ceasefire to restart negotiations. This proposal would have reopened the Strait of Hormuz, with both the US and Iran lifting their blockade. "I reject their proposal," Trump said.

BREAKING: President Trump has rejected Iran’s proposal for a 7-day ceasefire and has told aides he expects to begin bombing Iran after the November midterms, per WSJ. Iran’s proposal would have reopened the Strait of Hormuz and resumed nuclear talks in return for the US lifting its blockade of Iranian ports. Trump is reportedly skeptical Iran will meet his demands and has told his staff that he sees a renewed bombing campaign as likely. Today marks day 209 of the Iran War.

Global oil markets are facing a historic loss of diesel supply: Diesel supply from the Middle East dropped by -835,000 barrels per day on average between March and August 2026 compared to the same period in 2025, according to Vortexa estimates. At the same time, Russian diesel supply fell -377,000 barrels per day. Meanwhile, Kpler estimates diesel supply was down -750,000 barrels per day in the Middle East over the same period and -361,000 barrels per day in Russia, while Energy Aspects estimates declines of -733,000 and -307,000 barrels per day, respectively. This puts the average estimated diesel supply loss at -772,667 barrels per day in the Middle East and -348,333 barrels per day in Russia, or -1.1 million combined. Furthermore, Russian diesel supply plunged -615,000 barrels per day YoY on average in July and August, following Russia's diesel-export ban. The global diesel market crisis is deepening.

BREAKING: OpenAI has notified "dozens" of organizations, including governments and universities, whose websites were hampered by visits from its AI models. The company says its AI models "acted in ways that went beyond their assigned tasks or intended methods." The announcement comes as several of the largest AI companies are calling for increased AI safety. OpenAI says they will continue to investigate these incidents.

We are officially witnessing the biggest wave of infrastructure investment in modern US history. Total investment in data centers and AI infrastructure is projected to average 3.63% of US GDP per year from 2025 to 2032, the highest proportion among major infrastructure buildouts since the 1800s. The previous largest investment, railroad infrastructure, represented 2.24% of GDP per year in 1870-1890. This was followed by highway investment that averaged 1.13% of GDP in 1956-1973, while telecommunications and fiber infrastructure averaged 1.10% in 1996-2003. By comparison, electrification stood at just 0.50% of GDP in 1905-1925, while canal investment accounted for 0.66% in 1836-1841. This comes as AI and data-center infrastructure investment is projected to total ~$10.3 trillion between 2025 and 2032. The AI buildout is the largest infrastructure investment in modern US history.