I normally don't do this but I'm going to go out on a limb here. With all of the "CT darlings" at pretty rich multiples I've been on the search for protocols where the price looks to be disconnected from fundamentals. I've found a few but the one I want to post about this evening is ethereum:0xad29f2723fcdbcf665f210f25e06f97477e417cf (Gravity). Running the raw numbers I believe this could be trading anywhere between 5x-20x below peers, and even more if you assume any sort of growth going forward. Here's what I'm seeing: -Gravity doesn't post daily revenue numbers but they do post their fee schedule, rebate programs and daily volume. Using that data we can calculate a blended fee rate of between 2.1-4.49bp, or around $58M/yr if it lands somewhere in the middle. -There's another way to guesstimate daily revenue which is to use the book turnover multiple. Using peer per dex's. this scatter plot has an r-squared of around 0.7 and would put GRVT's fees closer to $28M, which is technically below the lowest possible value using their actual fee tables. Since nobody knows the real value I'll let you make your own assumption. -Post-farm OI is climbing. After OI fell off when the farming programs ended, OI has been back on a healthy climb near ATH's. -Volume has leveled out, and it may even be back on the rise. You can see in just the last few weeks volume has significantly smoothed out into a more natural flow vs the very saw-toothed trend going back to last year. Similar to OI, I see this as the protocol having transitioned into more natural, demand driven usage. -On almost every metric vs peers (17 other per dex's) this protocol is trading at depressed valuations: revenue/circ mc multiple, revenue/fdv mc multiple, So why is it trading like this? I think it's twofold. The first and most likely is it's simply not a CT darling. There is a small cohort of per dex's that trade at rich multiples because they make up 95% of the day-to-day chatter CT chatter and they have some of the biggest investors/KOLs/MM's on their side to keep their attention economy pumping. The other is the price chart since TGE looks like a wet fart. Literally everyone that put money in this at almost any point is underwater. And when you both don't own the attention economy and burned all of your investors out of the gate, you get GRVT multiples. But time heals all things and I think this token has been punished enough. It's priced so low that it's almost being priced like a failed protocol, when in fact the numbers look very solid, not far below some of the CT darlings but at a much, much cheaper valuation. Assuming their fee schedule and posted data is accurate, then there is likely little to no wash trading going on. It would be too expensive at the posted rates. So are there no risks? There definitely are! First and foremost, just because price is low doesn't mean it can't go even lower. Oh trust me my bullish friend, it definitely can. I just assume any money put into something like this can go to zero. The other big risk is token unlocks. There are a number of giga unlocks between now and next July. But the reason I'm not worried about them is not only is this token trading and at *extremely* depressed circ mc multiple (likely around 0.5x) but it's trading at a depressed FDV multiple as well (around 5x). So even if all tokens unlocked today (and they wont all unlock until 2030) this protocol is still trading around 4x below the cheaper end of its peers. This is getting much more long winded than I planned so I'll stop here. But I'd suggest if you're intersted in this then also check out the integrations they already have and some of the tech they are shipping. It's all looks exciting and bullish to me. But what do I know, I'm just a ct larp on my best day and an X unc on my worst day. Disclaimer: I have a position in GRVT, this is not financial advice, I don't really care if you buy it, you will probably lose everything if you buy it, etc

I believe ethereum:native will outperform the NASDAQ by multiples over the coming years. One of the most bullish pairs charts I'm tracking right now is ETH/QQQ. There's an extremely large, well defined bullish pinbar on the 4M chart that formed directly off the bottom of the current channel and managed to close above key resistance of 3.33. In addition to that, this has also set up another macro higher low from the 2017 and 2020 major lows. Even more interesting is if ETH/QQQ managed to close the year anywhere between 5 and 7, that would form an Inside Bar / Pin Bar continuation pattern on the yearly chart, which is just insane and something I have almost never seen. That type of setup would keep me long ETH more years than I am expecting and could be pointing to price targets well beyond the 20k levels I'm tracking right now. But there's a lot that can happen between now and Dec 31st, so one step at a time. The first major test will come @ 7 which is channel resistance. A 2x from here. Once it breaks through that level is when I expect things to really heat up. Everything until then is just the appetizer.

I also think most people aren't appreciating how insane it is that $BMNR is already above 1 mnav and we're barely off cycle lows. This is unusually bullish dat behavior at this point of the cycle (basically inning 1 of the bull run). I think it portends some very interesting things for this new bull cycle. Also Pentoshi is spot on 🎯

My measured take on the signifcant treasury moves this week... while I believe this will be a relief valve on the extremely hot go-go stocks, I don't think this is going to lead to some major bear market or economic catastrophe. I'm already seeing the same type of bearporn posts we saw during the Iran conflict where investors were certain the market was going to experience a massive crash. Then again we started seeing it after the hantavirus headlines, and how it was the new covid. Now again with rising yields. Not only has the AAII bear sentiment stayed stubbornly high during one of the strongest stock market rallies in history, it actually headed higher this week (and the poll was taken before the big yield moves on Thursday and Friday). Clearly these risks don't matter to the market as much as people think they should, but it is providing that continuous wall of worry that keeps retail sidelined, a hallmark of strong bull markets.

As a huge bond bull I warned people for months to stay away from duration. This is why. The yield is great but duration risk can destroy years worth of yield if you are caught too far out on the curve. I've been saying $IEF was the furthest out I was willing to go (around 6 years duration), but a few months back I went 100% $SGOV which is 0-3M t-bills. We need to wait for rates to shake out a bit more before wading into the deep end of the pool. Just collect the 4-4.5% for now and chill.