This “AI might kill us all” prediction has caused alarm around the world; it’s even in local news in India
One takeaway here is that messaging, like beauty, is in the eye of the beholder. In some circles, this post would’ve been praised for candor and intellectual honesty, with no hubbub at all
But in just the last couple years, the set of people paying attention to AI safety has changed (and massively expanded!)
Posts like this are now seen by very different people with very different reactions
I take on good faith that Evan intended to be honest, not to frighten people. That’s reasonable because until pretty recently, the people focused on this have been a small, niche group of AI researchers
But the topic has broken containment; posts like this are now globally relevant and reach users, regulators, members of the general public - many of whom are already quite sufficiently anxious
Jacob is correct here—we really do earnestly believe AI could kill all humans! I personally think it is >10% within the next decade. I believe Anthropic is trying its best, but we do not yet have a plan to solve alignment for superintelligence and are not clearly on track to.