Lakshya Jain
@lxeagle17
software/ML engineer, polling+political data @TheArgumentMag, co-founder @SplitTicket_, and @cal alum. ✉️ lakshya@theargumentmag.com. i hate sports
2.6K Following 94.8K Followers
🚨NEW🚨: A very, very detailed estimate on how every demographic is voting for 2026, for @TheArgumentMag — for both registered voters and the likely electorate.
Hispanics: D+8 -> D+26
Young voters: D+10 -> D+33 (!)
RVs: D+6.6
LVs: D+9.1
Show more
One of the most controversial findings we've published at Split Ticket (at least among the left/center-left) was that women and minority candidates do *not* underperform.
In 2024, women outperformed men in the House battlegrounds, in part because women have fewer scandals.
Show more
@KarimAttal45765 Regardless of your view on who's favored, it's pretty clear Kalshi is not actually reading what those drops mean and are reacting to headline changes in raw vote totals. There's no need for this kind of oscillation
Show more
