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Lauris
@lzminsky
forward deployed philosopher. I want markets for all priceable states of the world.
Joined April 2009
3K Following    10.3K Followers
The core claim is that prediction markets are a specific case of state-contingent pricing. In Arrow-Debreu terms, a complete market has claims that pay in particular future states. One state realizes, the corresponding claim pays. Hyperliquid is interesting because it is moving toward a venue where different forms of future-state exposure can share infrastructure. HIP-3 creates a general perp market layer for new underlyings. HIP-4 points toward bounded event claims. Trade / pre-IPO-style markets price transition states before conventional public-market instruments exist. Options, if added seriously, would make the implied distributional layer explicit. These instruments are different in form but adjacent in economics. The common object is a price attached to a future condition. The thesis does not require Hyperliquid to be a perfect Arrow-Debreu market. On the contrary, It only requires the venue to support a widening set of state-contingent claims through shared margin, collateral, oracle, clearing, liquidation, and settlement logic. That is enough to make more of the state space legible and tradable.
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