Introducing Blanket! Blanket helps small businesses find relevant @Kalshi markets for hedging risk and running promotions. Describe your business risks and it will help identify the Kalshi markets that fit. Blanket is a research product and will be open sourced after testing.

By no means am I an expert in compute markets, but was inspired to develop a take by both Brett and @0xfishylosopher Compute keeps getting scored against the commodity formation checklist and keeps failing the same two boxes, standardized delivery and time plus location pricing. Fair enough as history. Grain, oil and electricity all needed those things because their markets terminated in a dated futures contract, and a dated contract has to bridge into the physical world somehow. But new markets stopped terminating there. Perps collapsed the term structure into a funding rate and swapped the delivery bridge for an oracle print. Hyperliquid became the deepest novel derivatives venue of the cycle on underlyings it never delivers. AX clears over a billion a month in perps on traditional assets and already lists GPU-hour contracts. The catch is that the perp stuffs the whole thing into the benchmark. A funding rate needs an anchor, and for compute the anchor is the entire fight. Compute varies by SKU, location, tenor and counterparty. No index can carry all four, so every index picks what to keep and drops the rest. The three racing to list made three different cuts: on-demand rental rates, printed transactions only, energy normalized. One of these is the LIBOR to SOFR argument, real prints over posted quotes, being made at the birth of a benchmark instead of after a scandal. Whatever an index drops has to go somewhere, and it goes onto dealer balance sheets. Which is why this market is forming dealer first, exchange second. The cleared contract ends up as the hedge leg for the OTC book, and price discovery moves into the spread between indices. Oil did this with WTI-Brent, gas did it with JKM-TTF. When no benchmark is complete, the basis between imperfect ones carries the information. That still leaves the part neither a funding rate nor a basis trade can touch: jumps. An export control ruling, a Rubin slip, an interconnection queue decision, a hyperscaler capex cut. The whole surface moves at once and resolves as an event, not drift. The instrument for that slice is a binary, and the first compute price markets settling on printed transaction data went live in May on @Kalshi. For a dealer warehousing SKU basis that’s the right shape, you lay off the timing and keep the size. Perp for the level, index menu for the shape, dealers for the residual, binaries for the jumps. All four layers are live today. Historical path-dependencies may not be a precise source of truth here.

started this a week ago. covers event risk, compute markets and perps. has founders, investors and even a guy who was in the same intern class @ GS with @mansourtarek_ thanks for the shoutout @thenarrator

been in a tg with 41 people building around finance, prediction markets, and the hard problems being solved right now the caliber of conversation is what the paypal mafia or hrt chats probably looked like in year one shoutout to @lzminsky on this one

how @capapp is building the future of credit - @defidave 0:00 - soundcloud rap & fidget spinners 02:47 - credit as the engine of the economy 06:40 - the socratic method & market incentives 13:44 - how Cap works 21:00 - the defi rails powering Cap 22:50 - cap token launch 28:28 - shoutout @uniswap & @haydenzadams 29:40 - the state of DeFi in 2026 (post-mythos) 34:00 - @ethereum wins by denomination 36:54 - what stablecoins actually do 42:09 - inverting "it's our dollar but your problem” 43:35 - mild anti-semitism 47:28 - the genesis of defi dave 54:45 - start trading & believe in something 55:34 - total new york victory, cigs inside, eth bushwick 1:03:29 - shoutout @lzminsky 1:04:00 - check out @capapp, @defidave & @fullyvested_pod

Overwhelming and incredible response on this. We will be joined by some ex-Anthropic and applied AI researchers as well for one of the dinners. We still have a few spots free and might set up an additional dinner. If I’ve made a mistake and haven’t gotten back to you yet, please reply or DM, so I can get back to you ASAP. thanks

exactly- you don't get to a polished city without the hypergambling casinos first. underrated book by Aaron Brown called The Poker Face of Wall Street gets at the heart of the matter: gambling isn't some separate activity outside of capitalism. it's one of the essential forms of price discovery, capital formation, liquidity, risk transfer, and social coordination in frontier markets. memecoins are like the casino on the riverboat. they bring the early crowd, the liquidity, the attention, the degens, the builders, and eventually the "real economy" is built and hardened around them. vegas needed the casinos before it got all the fancy hotels, restaurants, major conferences, and the sphere. crypto needed to hypergamble on attention before perps, neobanks, onchain credit, payments, decentralized rails, and other consumer apps could fully materialize.

The core claim is that prediction markets are a specific case of state-contingent pricing. In Arrow-Debreu terms, a complete market has claims that pay in particular future states. One state realizes, the corresponding claim pays. Hyperliquid is interesting because it is moving toward a venue where different forms of future-state exposure can share infrastructure. HIP-3 creates a general perp market layer for new underlyings. HIP-4 points toward bounded event claims. Trade / pre-IPO-style markets price transition states before conventional public-market instruments exist. Options, if added seriously, would make the implied distributional layer explicit. These instruments are different in form but adjacent in economics. The common object is a price attached to a future condition. The thesis does not require Hyperliquid to be a perfect Arrow-Debreu market. On the contrary, It only requires the venue to support a widening set of state-contingent claims through shared margin, collateral, oracle, clearing, liquidation, and settlement logic. That is enough to make more of the state space legible and tradable.

It all starts to makes sense when you realize degrowthers are literally opposed to life They honestly think humans are bad and humanity has to end It is the most dangerous mindset around right now and it's centered in Europe, but they don't realize they're in the grasp of it because their media feeds them this propaganda every single day I know, I'm European!