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anastasiia
@mathy_research
phd financial economics • crypto native • quantitative modeling & empirical research • @BlockworksAdv team
410 Following    836 Followers
there is a line in Peirce new statement on crypto vaults that i keep coming back to, where she tells curators to go figure out on their own whether their activity triggers the federal securities laws: "Parties involved in managing these vaults, for example, by selecting the yield-generating activities, re-allocating assets among yield-generating assets, or selecting the parties that will make those decisions, may want to analyze whether their activities implicate the federal securities laws." that sentence feels as an instruction and the instruction is really a data problem since to analyze whether an activity implicates the securities laws, someone needs a record of what got decided, when it changed and who had the authority to decide it and that record is the part almost nobody in the industry currently keeps. i have been building toward almost exactly that record for the past year, from a completely different angle. first paper (vault as a credit instrument) is a formal credit risk framework for lending vaults and it shows that before you can even compute depositor risk on a curated vault, two things have to be disclosed. first, the parameter history (what was allocated, reallocated and when) and, second, the governance structure (who holds decision authority and whether that authority faces a timelock or can be exercised in real time). if either one is missing, we dont treat that as a gap to dismiss past but we treat the silence itself as the worst case answer, which is a stricter standard than most disclosure regimes apply. comparing that to Peirce's sentence and the overlap is close to be exact as "selecting and re-allocating yield-generating activities" is our parameter history and "selecting the parties who decide" is our governance disclosure. we built that standard for depositors but it turns out to be the same starting record either way. second paper (out in august) moves past disclosure and starts scoring curator discretion directly including how fast governance can respond before a stress event turns into a loss, whether incentives are aligned, where the conflicts of interest sit and how exposed a vault is to a curator might quietly miscalibrating a parameter, all reduced to a number attached to the exact behavior Peirce just flagged as a possible securities trigger. neither paper answers the legal question you would need Howey or Reves to resolve, and that determination is not ours to make. however, Peirce has now made curator discretion the central fact pattern for that determination and right now most people trying to characterize their own activity against it have nothing more rigorous than a paragraph on a docs page. we spent a year building the record keeping layer and we are about to add the measurement layer on top of it, so that whatever happens on the legal side, someone can say precisely what a curator did and how much risk that decision created, with each number tied to a stated assumption. $8.6B is currently sitting across 788 curated vaults reaching 1.4 million users, these numbers make clear the industry has every incentive to build its own disclosure and measurement standard now, before a regulator writes one for it instead.
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