You probably have the Iran war backward: sanctions didn’t fail before the conflict. They helped make its military outcome possible, by depriving the regime of the money, technology and components needed to field a credible modern defense. My op-ed @WSJopinion

The internal Iranian regime narrative has shifted markedly in the past 72 hours. Multiple officials have now openly acknowledged Iran’s structural gasoline deficit, war-damaged energy infrastructure, and the urgent need for consumption management. Fuel shortages and tightened rationing are pushing drivers across the country into a rapidly growing gasoline black market. Citizens are describing hours-long lines at filling stations and sharply inflated under-the-table prices. a clear signal that the official quota system is breaking down on the ground. @IranIntl On the export front, the picture is just as stark: Iranian crude exports have collapsed by more than 80% between mid-March and late April, measured against a March baseline of 23.4 million barrels. @Vortexa. And there is no easy workaround. Iran’s overland export alternatives, via Turkey, Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Uzbekistan, have a combined capacity of only 250,000–300,000 bpd. The math simply doesn’t work for Tehran. The cumulative picture: a regime now publicly conceding what it long denied, a domestic fuel market under acute stress, and an export channel with no viable replacement.