Michael Pettis(@michaelxpettis):Interesting piece by Shenwan Hongyuan's Zhao Wei: "By August 2026, a consensus has formed around the stark K-shaped divergence characterizing China’s economy. The overarching narrative is one of sharp contrasts: strong supply but weak demand, booming exports against sluggish domestic consumption and surging new economic drivers alongside stagnating traditional sectors. But, relying on export-led growth to mask domestic fractures is an increasingly precarious strategy."

Michael Pettis

@michaelxpettis

Senior Fellow, Carnegie Endowment. For speaking engagements, please contact me at chinfinpettis@yahoo.com

Joined October 2017

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Michael Pettis@michaelxpettis

2026.08.28 08:52

Interesting piece by Shenwan Hongyuan's Zhao Wei: "By August 2026, a consensus has formed around the stark K-shaped divergence characterizing China’s economy. The overarching narrative is one of sharp contrasts: strong supply but weak demand, booming exports against sluggish domestic consumption and surging new economic drivers alongside stagnating traditional sectors. But, relying on export-led growth to mask domestic fractures is an increasingly precarious strategy."