Gene Munster
@munster_gene
Managing Partner @deepwatermgmt. Investing in tech-driven growth. All views/opinions are personal and not investment advice. 🚀
145 Following 103.9K Followers
This week @elonmusk challenged the industry and @bscholl @boomsupersonic delivered.
On Tuesday’s $SPCX earnings call, Elon talked about how to quicken the pace to get power up and running: “Casting is the real bottleneck. And if anything, it seems to be getting worse. So that means that SpaceX can bring power on line 12 to 18 months faster than anyone else. That's the kind of advantage that's difficult to replicate unless someone else is doing advanced casting".
Today, Boom announced the world's first all-digital foundry to cast single crystal turbine blades and vanes.
Congrats to Blake and the Boom team on the huge milestone. We’re thrilled to be investors in both @boomsupersonic and @SpaceX, solving AI’s biggest bottleneck and reindustrializing America.
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Grok is taking over my phone usage.
$SPCX apps were 50% of my screen time last week. Lots of X (but a lot of that is Grok) plus Grok and Grok Bot.
The point is that SpaceX could make a phone optimized for Grok at the OS layer that would beat the iPhone for 50%+ of my phone usage. $AAPL
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"Siri is the one thing Apple put out in the world that never just worked." @dougclinton on our Apple episode of Fathom. $AAPL
He's being harsh. Siri is far from perfect, but the new Siri is better than people realize. Apple needs to get the word out. Even more, they need to ship product as fast as $META and $SPCX. That’s the hardest part.
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Looking past the market noise today, AI trade fundamentals remain solid.
Early this morning $TSM reported Sep qtr revenue +51% y/y, and growth keeps accelerating:
Dec-25: +21%
Mar-26: +35%
Jun-26: +36%
Sep-26: +51%
Even with TSM down 1.5% today vs Nasdaq down 0.6%, they’re up 6% over the past month vs Nasdaq up 3.5%
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We’re still early in the AI buildout.
Let’s Set Aside the Pleasantries, Tesla Is Going to Crush Traditional Automakers. $TSLA
The EV winter for Tesla is ending. The EV ice age for traditional auto is just beginning. $TSLA Sep deliveries down 2% y/y. GM and Ford down 75%.
Why is $TSLA gaining EV share again?
1. Best bang for the buck.
2. FSD is starting to play more into buying decisions.
Both of these are long-term positives.
$TSLA Sep deliveries are the latest sign the EV winter is thawing for Tesla (and $RIVN), while traditional car makers remain in a deep freeze.
Sep 26: While traditional car makers like GM are reporting EV's down 70% plus y/y, Tesla was down 2% in the face of the tough tax credit comp a year ago. The Street was expecting down 7%. I thought it could be flat.
Thats good news for CY27 deliveries. The Street is at 9% growth. I expect it will be above 15%.
Rivian was up 46%, but the numbers are small. Rivian delivers are 1/24 the size of Tesla.
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$TSLA Sep deliveries are the latest sign the EV winter is thawing for Tesla (and $RIVN), while traditional car makers remain in a deep freeze.
Sep 26: While traditional car makers like GM are reporting EV's down 70% plus y/y, Tesla was down 2% in the face of the tough tax credit comp a year ago. The Street was expecting down 7%. I thought it could be flat.
Thats good news for CY27 deliveries. The Street is at 9% growth. I expect it will be above 15%.
Rivian was up 46%, but the numbers are small. Rivian delivers are 1/24 the size of Tesla.
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Tesla Deliveries land tomorrow a.m.: The EV Winter Thaws
• For the Sep quarter, the Street is looking for 461k, down 7% y/y.
• I’m looking for 497k, which would be flat y/y.
• The Street’s looking for a decline because of the tough comp from the US EV tax credit sunset last September.
• The broader EV commentary has turned more cautious recently, with sales of GM EVs down around 70% y/y.
• I believe the opposite is happening, that we’re exiting the EV winter that started three years ago. Tesla demand is stronger than expected based on a combination of continued high gas prices and the word slowly getting out that FSD is the real deal.
• U.S. extended lead times point to stronger demand. I estimate about 40% of deliveries are in the U.S. Since last fall, Model Y and Model 3 lead times have essentially doubled, going from around 5-6 weeks to about 10 weeks. That’s an average across all trims. $TSLA
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Tesla Deliveries land tomorrow a.m.: The EV Winter Thaws
• For the Sep quarter, the Street is looking for 461k, down 7% y/y.
• I’m looking for 497k, which would be flat y/y.
• The Street’s looking for a decline because of the tough comp from the US EV tax credit sunset last September.
• The broader EV commentary has turned more cautious recently, with sales of GM EVs down around 70% y/y.
• I believe the opposite is happening, that we’re exiting the EV winter that started three years ago. Tesla demand is stronger than expected based on a combination of continued high gas prices and the word slowly getting out that FSD is the real deal.
• U.S. extended lead times point to stronger demand. I estimate about 40% of deliveries are in the U.S. Since last fall, Model Y and Model 3 lead times have essentially doubled, going from around 5-6 weeks to about 10 weeks. That’s an average across all trims. $TSLA
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Trump gives the AI trade the green light.
I often get asked what skills we'll need to be “successful” in an AI future. After OpenAI DevDay, and using more bots, I'm adding executive function to the list.
1. Creativity, vision
2. Executive function (plan, focus, juggle multiple tasks) to manage bots
3. Empathy, community
What will be less valuable is mastering a traditional skill, whether it’s accounting, software development, research, or, yes, asset management.
The bots are everywhere: OpenAI Dots, Muse, Siri, Grok Bot, Poke, Instinct, Gemini Spark, and they’re only going to get better.
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Announces Ultrafast service. Is 8x faster than the Regular. The price is 6x higher for tokens.
My take: Smart move. They're segmenting features into multiple products with tiered pricing with a goal to increase overall revenue.
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They tried a demo of using voice with dots to get real work done, across teams that konked out.
My take: the demo miss is a head fake. They'll get it work and using voice adds a new dynamic to workflow that is most human.
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Second time a voice demo didn't work.
My take: They're pushing the utility of voice despite the risk of the demo miss. It's a sign that they see voice as central to the future interface.
Announces Ultrafast service. Is 8x faster than the Regular. The price is 6x higher: $500 a month.
My take: Smart move. They're segmenting features into multiple products with tiered pricing with a goal to increase overall revenue.
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Announces Ultrafast service. Is 8x faster than the Regular. The price is 6x higher: $500 a month.
My take: Smart move. They're segmenting features into multiple products with tiered pricing with a goal to increase overall revenue.
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dots available for paid users today.
They tried a demo of using voice with dots to get real work done, across teams that konked out.
My take: the demo miss is a head fake. They'll get it work and using voice adds a new dynamic to workflow that is most human.
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They tried a demo of using voice with dots to get real work done, across teams that konked out.
My take: the demo miss is a head fake. They'll get it work and using voice adds a new dynamic to workflow that is most human.
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Works with 4k apps, that's important to getting the most out of the dot bot. You can start with one dot today, and in the future will have access to many at the same time.
Works with 4k apps, that's important to getting the most out of the dot bot. You can start with one dot today, and in the future will have access to many at the same time.
OpenAI dev day kicks off. Bottom line: This personalized AI thing is going ballistic.
Altman announces dots, a bot that competes with Muse, Siri, Grok Bot, Poke. He calls it the "real version of AI that we have always wanted".
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OpenAI dev day kicks off. Bottom line: This personalized AI thing is going ballistic.
Altman announces dots, a bot that competes with Muse, Siri, Grok Bot, Poke. He calls it the "real version of AI that we have always wanted".
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Personalized AI bots will blow the everyday tech user away in the next year. Good news for $SPCX, $AAPL, $META, Cognition.
Today, my guess is less than 1% of the US population understands how powerful these new personalized AI bots are. That's going to quickly change.
Here at Deepwater, we're testing Siri, Grok Bot, Muse, Poke, and Gemini Spark.
In the past month, we have noticed the usefulness of these bots has gone off the charts. Specifically, a number of everyday inefficiencies, like getting caught up on the news, sifting through spam, and prepping for the day, are now reliably automated.
And we're just at the start.
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