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P Equity Research ๐Ÿ“ฐ
@pequityresearch
Research ๐Ÿ“ƒ & News ๐Ÿ—ž๏ธ | Semiconductors & Tech | Sharing my knowledge & insights with the world ๐ŸŒ | Deep dives, research, discord in my substack!๐Ÿ“| PMs Open๐Ÿ‘‡
Joined April 2023
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Goldman Sachs: TSMC $TSM > N3 (3nm) Capacity: Revised upward to 200kwpm by end-2027E (vs. 190kwpm prior) as N3 becomes the primary bottleneck for AI GPUs and ASICs following node migrations. > N2 (2nm) Capacity: Revised upward to 140kwpm by end-2027E (vs. 130kwpm prior). N2 initial-year output is expected to exceed N3's first year by 45%. > Advanced Packaging (CoWoS): 2027E CoWoS capacity has been raised to 280kwpm quarterly (vs. 250kwpm prior). Total annual CoWoS capacity for 2027E is adjusted up to 2,730k wafers (vs. 2,490k prior). > Capex Step-up: Raised 2027E capex to US$78bn (from US$70bn) and 2028E capex to US$82bn (from US$74bn) to secure the AI buildout. 2026E capex remains unchanged at US$56bn. > Gross Margin (GM) Upside: Now modeled to hit 66.9% / 66.8% / 67.3% from 2026 to 2028 (up from 64.9% / 64.7% / 66.5% prior). Better product mix and pricing power are expected to easily offset any dilution from overseas fabrication facilities. $NVDA $AMD $GOOGL $AMZN $META $MSFT $INTC $AVGO $MRVL
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