So
@ICE_Markets and
@CMEGroup are worried about
@HyperliquidX…
They should be.
Hyperliquid delivered 24/7 price discovery, and both exchanges know that they will need to do the same to stay relevant.
Neither is standing still.
ICE has invested in
@Polymarket and has a partnership with
@okx.
CME has chosen
@Google.
Both are moving because they understand the stakes and see the opportunity. Both have been in crypto for about a decade.
@tradexyz’s Hyperliquid’s S&P contract may have been the straw that broke the camel’s back. Oil is equally concerning for them.
Because to support U.S. persons, a derivatives market must be regulated. This is the law, and there has never been an issue around clarity: all derivatives are regulated in the U.S. It’s been that way since Dodd Frank and earlier.
This requirement forces registration and numerous licenses (DCM, DCO, FCM). These come with mandatory legal, compliance, operational and yes, CAPITAL obligations. Together, running a regulated market is very expensive. And derivative markets are competitive, so as always:
Regulation = consolidation
The big get bigger.
So, along comes Hyperliquid. Unregulated, lower cost, 24/7. Liquidity follows.
Where from here?
1. Stay offshore. Keep U.S. persons out.
2. Pivot and go fully onshore. Buy or build to get those licenses. Centralize. Compete. Build a proper risk waterfall. Be compliant. Open the doors for U.S. persons. It’s a favorable regulatory environment and the
@CFTC may work with them around the edges. (Eg provide relief of intermediary requirements—something I’ve been pushing for years.) Polymarket is doing this—they can, too.
Or…
3. It could further decentralize. Another viable solution—technology should not be regulated. They could continue to build and improve. Heck, they could even build a decentralized risk waterfall and push auto deleveraging (ADL) to the back (where it belongs).
Can’t wait to see how this plays out.
🍿🍿🍿