If SpaceX acquires Tesla, Elon ends up with 60-80% voting control of the combined entity. Dave Blunden walked through the math.
SpaceX already has 10-for-1 super-voting shares, giving Elon ~85% of votes there. Tesla is 1-for-1, where Elon holds ~20%. If SpaceX acquires Tesla and absorbs its one-vote shares alongside SpaceX's existing super-voting structure, the voting math tilts hard in Elon's favor.
Prediction markets (Kalishi): 50-50 odds within a year.
@PeterDiamandis: 100%.
Two blockers: Tesla's public shareholder vote (Elon doesn't control it), and SpaceX's IPO valuation needs to compare favorably to Tesla's market cap at deal time. If Tesla stock declines relative to SpaceX post-IPO, Tesla shareholders may welcome the deal.
Combined entity: EVs, energy, solar, rockets, satellites, internet, humanoid robots, Mars. First $10T company thesis.
Full voting structure breakdown and what changes if SpaceX IPOs first:
Source: Moonshots with Peter H. Diamandis -