i've gone deep into the topic of inflation, deficit, M2 and portfolio purchasing power protection and here are my conclusions:
-M2 is my inflation benchmark. Extremely useful to start charting assets vs it alongside USD. I think its closer to real inflation than CPI or GDP
-M2 is 50% from prepandemic levels, vs 30% for CPI/GDP. Real inflation is prob in between both, but imo closer to 50% than 30%.
-Real inflation over the last 6.5 years (at 50%) is close to 5.5% per year. This is your current benchmark in order to remain break even in purchasing power. It's still a very small number but extremely likely to increase
-With that 5.5% benchmark in mind, being traderds or defi participants, it's not that hard to beat at all today. This means our 'need' to own directional assets is much smaller. Don't buy something cause you feel otherwise you're being diluted
-BTC is cheap af vs M2. Look at that chart holy shit. I don't have enough btc wtf
-Gold is by no means cheap anymore at these prices, im gay for having bought it at 4450$ avg. and might end up selling it to buy more btc. Gold should have a relatively stable baseline vs M2? I think so, but not sure
-SPY/QQQ are not cheap neither, but perhaps some justification for them (or perhaps they're in a bubble, yeah prob a bit of a bubble). I can see how SPY and QQQ are justifiable to have higher than historical numbers vs M2, since we live in a more global world where top companies can grow exponentially at smaller cost
-The best place for a savings account is swiss banks. CHF is a much much stronger currency than the USD, Switzerland has no deficit, small debt, and the only reason they inflated their currency from the pandemic is cause they were forced to in order to have competitive exports. It's impossible for CHFUSD to not go uponly. Switzerland also much less likely to end up in the fiscal hell the EU is on its road to.
IBKR with CHF as base currency is probably the best tradfi setup out there
-The EU is systemically fucked for so many reasons, it's in a much worse position than even the US. EURUSD likely to keep going down over 10-20 years. High taxes, high wealth taxes, freeze of bank withdrawals, even confiscation are likely. Probably the smartest option is to just flee if you can