Raoul Pal
@RaoulGMI
Founder/CEO Global Macro Investor, @RealVision. Figuring things out at the nexus of Macro, Web3 & the Exponential Age. Not a guru.
1.8K Following 1.5M Followers
Opus 5.5 is absurdly good. What on earth will Fable 5.5 be like? Im beginning to not get my head around it any more...AGI.
I love @jungle4eva and they are as exquisite live as they are on album. Just saw them in Dallas tonight. Gorgeous
Not sure if you've yet seen my interview with @armaniferrante but it's super interesting on the tokenizing of everything . Really enjoyed this
There appears to be a wide open gap in Oasis tour dates around Glastonbury weekend...
Sui dominance is a function of its beta. It has a low free float, 70% locked up in staking and it's earlier stage, and therefore any $ of capital in, or out, leads to outside moves over time.
Meanwhile the density of its network (TVL per active user) remains constant in up and down markets (a sign of network coherence), and higher than most of its peers. It still has a way to go but the sui:native team is shipping the future of finance and the agentic economy rails.
See you at @SuiBasedcamp in Singapore!
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looking forward to this one! Speaking at @SolanaEvents Breakpoint in November. The theme this year is Token Supercyle... very fitting
Economist Zoltan Pozsar sits down with @RaoulGMI of @RealVision on the OKX Main Stage for a conversation on where the global monetary system goes next.
Wed 7 Oct · 4:00 PM
we asked the best trader on the Real Vision team for ONE trading tip for socials and he produced a ten page annotated document…
whatever you do, do NOT reply ‘trade’ to this post or else we’re contractually obliged to send it to you free of charge
Please!! Dan is in Mykonos this week and we’re a man down!! Do NOT reply trade
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Welcome to The Culture Vault my little single check...
I've had my eye on you for a while and since it's national @jackbutcher week I thought it was time.
Thanks to my beautiful Blonde sniper @Blondie23LMD !
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The world doesn't have equal access to financial markets. Crypto fixes that.
I sat down with @armaniferrante, founder of Backpack and Mad Lads, to explore how regulated finance moves onchain, why tokenized equities could give everyone access to U.S. stocks, and how crypto becomes the global API for finance. As ever, please enjoy!
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David and I created The Exponentialist 3+!yeses ago for exactly these times. Read the week downloads and my Postcards from the Exponential Age free on Substack. I promise it will make you think... a lot
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A few days ago, Anthropic launched a new set of measures intended to help us keep track of progress in AI.
Among them is a measure of ‘the extent to which AI is building the next version of itself, as opposed to being built by humans’.
Turns out, the extent is: a lot.
Read more on this and other stories in this week's instalment of The Download
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See you in Singapore!
The next $5 trillion in transactions won't be human.
That's the premise at Sui Basecamp 2026, and @RaoulGMI is on the speaker list. Oct 7 and 8, Marina Bay Sands, Singapore, with @token2049.
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The next $5 trillion in transactions won't be human.
That's the premise at Sui Basecamp 2026, and @RaoulGMI is on the speaker list. Oct 7 and 8, Marina Bay Sands, Singapore, with @token2049.
Show more
When people think about tokenisation they tend to think about trading Apple on a Sunday, instant settlement, 24/7 markets... That's one tiny piece of it.
The bigger story is that everything becomes a token, and the whole economy gets rebuilt around it.
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The Everything Code is the first book from a major publisher co-written with AI.
I built the framework of what the book should be and where it needed to land. Then the AI ingested my entire body of work... 20 years of GMI reports, interviews, articles... and pulled it all together into one argument.
And a team inside Harriman House used AI throughout to speed the whole thing up and make it efficient. Great process to go through, and one that felt right for this book in particular.
Twenty years of thinking, organised by a machine. Bonkers.
And this is just where its going. Druck writes everything with AI now, for the same reason he uses a calculator. Give it a year and nobody will think to mention it.
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Investing is about simplifying things to reduce your decisions down to very few...
I developed the GMI Compounding Machine for RV Pro to do just that.
You can adjust how many standard deviations over bought you want to buy and how many standard deviations oversold you want to sell (and you can put in your exact amounts).
What it tells you is how to compound your returns: buy weakness, sell strength but sell less than you buy. It's as simple as that. I know nobody wants to hear it. Everyone wants to trade but really it's not that complicated. All you need to do is decide how cheap or how expensive you want to buy or sell. The rest is just holding and going to the beach.
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What I love about James is that he is an utterly manic bull but uses a long-term time horizon in all of his posts and basically a combination of all of this works every time. Either crypto is on an adoption curve or it's failed. If it's on an adoption curve, all of these entry points are perfect over time, not an exact price. @JamesEastonUK
Be like James.
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I don't trade (crypto or anything) a lot. I am a macro guy with long term horizons...I just add when the market is deeply oversold.
I added more ETH at 1,650, SOL at 65 and SUI at 0.75 back on June 5th. Those "stink bids" were pretty decent for RV Pro and GMI members. All 43 GMI positions are +96% on average with a 67% winners vs losers. Its all crypto and tech (The Exponential Age thesis).
Over the last 21 years my winners vs losers has held steady at around 65%.
My "edge" is time horizon and secular trends with The Everything Code overlay. It's not complicated but it works for me.
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Real Vision pays you to sign up.
You get 1,000 Visionary Points just for creating an account. Points are credit toward your membership, so that's $10 off any plan before you've done anything. Then the platform gives you five quests, and completing them earns you more points on top.
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The Everything Code is the first book from a major publisher co-written with AI.
I built the framework of what the book should be and where it needed to land. Then the AI ingested my entire body of work... 20 years of GMI reports, interviews, articles... and pulled it all together into one argument.
And a team inside Harriman House used AI throughout to speed the whole thing up and make it efficient. Great process to go through, and one that felt right for this book in particular.
Twenty years of thinking, organised by a machine. Bonkers.
And this is just where its going. Druck writes everything with AI now, for the same reason he uses a calculator. Give it a year and nobody will think to mention it.
Show more
