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Raoul Pal
@RaoulGMI
Founder/CEO Global Macro Investor, @RealVision. Figuring things out at the nexus of Macro, Web3 & the Exponential Age. Not a guru.
1.8K Following    1.5M Followers
this is really incredible. Thank you to everyone who has ordered so far. And if you've got your copy don't forget to leave a review, it helps a lot.
People systematically underestimate how much intelligence the world is going to use. Thats @DMattin on last weeks Journeyman, where he and @AndreasSteno joined forces for an Exponentialist crossover. People are sizing demand off the handful of uses they can see today. But the biggest users of intelligence wont even be human... it'll be AI agents using other AI agents to get their work done. The buildout ahead is staggering
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ok you lot...its time... grab your drink and lets have some madness
Sitting with Raoul first expands the mind, then synthesizes a vast array of ideas into a memorable parting gift. The Everything Code is in a key pre-order phase ahead of its November 3rd release. I'm acquiring a handful for the @24_Hours_Art ecosystem. Stay tuned...
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Had the chance to sign some early copies of The Everything Code at Sui Basecamp in Singapore a couple of weeks ago. Hand has just about recovered... The Everything Code is out everywhere on Tuesday! @SuiNetwork
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Everyone wants to know if the AI bubble is about to pop... My good friends @DMattin and @AndreasSteno got together for a special crossover on the Journeyman to dig into it. Funding stress, GPU rental prices still surging, OpenAI vs Anthropic, and why intelligence is becoming a commodity. The boom isnt bursting.. but the trade is changing. As ever, please enjoy!
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add it to your diaries people
Previously on the most chaotic show on the internet… In case you missed it, Drinks with Raoul is back November 2nd. Add it to your diaries 🍷
yep
High fashion is not exactly my usual territory but look at this... Prada’s entire holiday campaign was drawn by hand. Probably the biggest thing they put out all year and the whole point of it is that people spent bloody ages making it. This is what all the doomers are missing about AI. Once a machine can make the image for free, the thing that sets you apart is that a human did it. Human craft becomes the luxury good. Prada have worked it out before most economists have. Funnily enough I wrote about exactly this today... what stays scarce when intelligence is free. I'll link the full piece below for anyone interested
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High fashion is not exactly my usual territory but look at this... Prada’s entire holiday campaign was drawn by hand. Probably the biggest thing they put out all year and the whole point of it is that people spent bloody ages making it. This is what all the doomers are missing about AI. Once a machine can make the image for free, the thing that sets you apart is that a human did it. Human craft becomes the luxury good. Prada have worked it out before most economists have. Funnily enough I wrote about exactly this today... what stays scarce when intelligence is free. I'll link the full piece below for anyone interested
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I’ve spent most of this year writing about what AI will do the economy. This ones about what will happen to us Spoiler alert: it's not the doomer version where they take the jobs and we all die. As ever, please enjoy!
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Oh hell yes
Strap in. Drinks with Raoul is back November 2nd.
The hyperscalers are the biggest cash-generating businesses the world has ever seen. And they’re recycling all of that cash flow into the biggest capex build in history. It’s a self-reinforcing loop. They use the technology they’re building themselves, productivity rises, cash flows rise, capex accelerates. People worry about the borrowing, but these companies carry roughly 3.5% of their market cap in debt. They’re barely in debt at all. This is already the second largest capex event in history. The only bigger one was the railroads... and that cycle ran for 35 years. If intelligence keeps rising, capex keeps rising with it. There is no end to the need for data centers, compute and energy.
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First weeks trade idea winner was a nicely timed Coreweave short... Bring your best trade and earn up to $100k in prizes
Week 1 of the Real Vision Trading League is done 🏆 Congrats to Andy B, who wins $5,000 for the top idea of the week. You can see the full trade and his reasoning inside the platform. Tune in here at 4:30pm ET, when the team breaks down their favourite trade ideas from week 1. There's still everything to play for...
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Joe Bland joined Real Vision as a member and entered our 2025 Trade Ideas competition... he still holds two of the top 5 trades of all time and is now one of our contributors.. The 2026 RV Trading League is live. Give it your best shot and win up to $100K in prizes. Free to enter. Your turn...
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this was a fun one... thanks for having me
Every market in history had the same ceiling: 8.5 billion people. @RaoulGMI's argument at TOKEN2049 Singapore: AI agents just removed it. “The TAM has gone to infinity.” Watch the full keynote:
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The democratisation of financial intelligence has driven pretty much everything Ive done. For years I paid Bloomberg and Refinitiv to build business cycle indicators and dashboards... then AI arrived and I thought... why not just give it to people? Let them play with it, the same way a generation of investors got used to TradingView and technical analysis. So I built the GMI dashboards on Real Vision myself. Every layer compresses down to one question: what do we need to do now? I walk through all of it in this weeks episode of The Journeyman. Full episode on my YouTube. As ever, please enjoy!
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You haven't yet pre ordered my first book... I know, you haven't got round to it yet... you forgot... you'll do it later ... If I've ever added any value to you or you are interested in how to navigate what is coming then please consider pre-ordering 🙏
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It's worth watching the narrated graphic animation. It explains a lot about where we are now, why and where we are going. Not super easy to see on your phone but hopefully worth it. 35 years of work compressed into 7 mins
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Almost everything I've written in twenty one years of GMI traces back to two things... debt and demographics. An ageing population means slower growth, and slower growth means more debt to paper over the gap. Thats The Everything Code. But something else is now sitting on top of it. AI, robotics, energy and crypto are all hitting their exponential curves at the same time. The Exponential Age is where the debt problem and the technology collide, and what comes out the other side is a very different world. This is seven minutes on how it all fits together. The long version is in my book, out 3rd November. And until tonight, when you preorder The Everything Code I’ll send you the September GMI report free. The issue is called The New Macro, and its about what that collision looks like right now. It looks at which risks the bears are pricing wrongly, which ones could actually derail it, and the five numbers that would tell me I'm wrong. GMI is normally members only, so this is the only way most people will ever read one. How to claim it below.
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Qatar Airport is easily the best in the world and is also the best large scale civic building I've ever seen in terms of function and design. It also runs with the quality of a Mandarin Oriental hotel. Quite an accomplishment for an airport...
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The Real Vision community is a super power in finding the best ideas. The Trading League is the investment hack you are after... and it's free
Everyone has a great trade in hindsight. The interesting part of the @RealVision Trading League is seeing the ideas before we know how they turn out. What’s the thesis? What’s the catalyst? What would invalidate it? That’s the discussion I want to see.
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