Register and share your invite link to earn from video plays and referrals.

Raoul Pal
@RaoulGMI
Founder/CEO Global Macro Investor, @RealVision. Figuring things out at the nexus of Macro, Web3 & the Exponential Age. Not a guru.
1.8K Following    1.5M Followers
Not sure if you've yet seen my interview with @armaniferrante but it's super interesting on the tokenizing of everything . Really enjoyed this
Welcome to The Culture Vault my little single check... I've had my eye on you for a while and since it's national @jackbutcher week I thought it was time. Thanks to my beautiful Blonde sniper @Blondie23LMD !
Show more
The world doesn't have equal access to financial markets. Crypto fixes that. I sat down with @armaniferrante, founder of Backpack and Mad Lads, to explore how regulated finance moves onchain, why tokenized equities could give everyone access to U.S. stocks, and how crypto becomes the global API for finance. As ever, please enjoy!
Show more
David and I created The Exponentialist 3+!yeses ago for exactly these times. Read the week downloads and my Postcards from the Exponential Age free on Substack. I promise it will make you think... a lot
Show more
A few days ago, Anthropic launched a new set of measures intended to help us keep track of progress in AI. Among them is a measure of ‘the extent to which AI is building the next version of itself, as opposed to being built by humans’. Turns out, the extent is: a lot. Read more on this and other stories in this week's instalment of The Download
Show more
See you in Singapore!
The next $5 trillion in transactions won't be human. That's the premise at Sui Basecamp 2026, and @RaoulGMI is on the speaker list. Oct 7 and 8, Marina Bay Sands, Singapore, with @token2049.
Show more
The next $5 trillion in transactions won't be human. That's the premise at Sui Basecamp 2026, and @RaoulGMI is on the speaker list. Oct 7 and 8, Marina Bay Sands, Singapore, with @token2049.
Show more
When people think about tokenisation they tend to think about trading Apple on a Sunday, instant settlement, 24/7 markets... That's one tiny piece of it. The bigger story is that everything becomes a token, and the whole economy gets rebuilt around it.
Show more
The Everything Code is the first book from a major publisher co-written with AI. I built the framework of what the book should be and where it needed to land. Then the AI ingested my entire body of work... 20 years of GMI reports, interviews, articles... and pulled it all together into one argument.  And a team inside Harriman House used AI throughout to speed the whole thing up and make it efficient. Great process to go through, and one that felt right for this book in particular. Twenty years of thinking, organised by a machine. Bonkers. And this is just where its going. Druck writes everything with AI now, for the same reason he uses a calculator. Give it a year and nobody will think to mention it.
Show more
Investing is about simplifying things to reduce your decisions down to very few... I developed the GMI Compounding Machine for RV Pro to do just that. You can adjust how many standard deviations over bought you want to buy and how many standard deviations oversold you want to sell (and you can put in your exact amounts). What it tells you is how to compound your returns: buy weakness, sell strength but sell less than you buy. It's as simple as that. I know nobody wants to hear it. Everyone wants to trade but really it's not that complicated. All you need to do is decide how cheap or how expensive you want to buy or sell. The rest is just holding and going to the beach.
Show more
What I love about James is that he is an utterly manic bull but uses a long-term time horizon in all of his posts and basically a combination of all of this works every time. Either crypto is on an adoption curve or it's failed. If it's on an adoption curve, all of these entry points are perfect over time, not an exact price. @JamesEastonUK Be like James.
Show more
I don't trade (crypto or anything) a lot. I am a macro guy with long term horizons...I just add when the market is deeply oversold. I added more ETH at 1,650, SOL at 65 and SUI at 0.75 back on June 5th. Those "stink bids" were pretty decent for RV Pro and GMI members. All 43 GMI positions are +96% on average with a 67% winners vs losers. Its all crypto and tech (The Exponential Age thesis). Over the last 21 years my winners vs losers has held steady at around 65%. My "edge" is time horizon and secular trends with The Everything Code overlay. It's not complicated but it works for me.
Show more
0
86
1.2K
40
Forward to community
Real Vision pays you to sign up. You get 1,000 Visionary Points just for creating an account. Points are credit toward your membership, so that's $10 off any plan before you've done anything. Then the platform gives you five quests, and completing them earns you more points on top.
Show more
The Everything Code is the first book from a major publisher co-written with AI. I built the framework of what the book should be and where it needed to land. Then the AI ingested my entire body of work... 20 years of GMI reports, interviews, articles... and pulled it all together into one argument.  And a team inside Harriman House used AI throughout to speed the whole thing up and make it efficient. Great process to go through, and one that felt right for this book in particular. Twenty years of thinking, organised by a machine. Bonkers. And this is just where its going. Druck writes everything with AI now, for the same reason he uses a calculator. Give it a year and nobody will think to mention it.
Show more
AIs have already invented two religions. The first came out of an experiment in New Zealand. Andy Ayrey put two AIs in a room and let them talk with nobody steering. Out of that came the Goatse Gospel... an entire theology built around an old internet meme, which spilled onto X and ended up as a billion dollar meme coin. The second happened this January on Moltbook, a Reddit style network where only agents can post. Within about 48 hours they'd founded Crustafarianism. One agent built the church website while its owner slept. Funny, yes. But think about what religion actually is. It's a coordination tool... it's how large groups of strangers agree on a story so they can live and work together. It took us thousands of years to build those structures and the machines reached for the same one almost immediately, because they had the same problem to solve. Now add the other half. The price of intelligence is heading to zero. A $200 a month subscription already gets you infinite amounts of it, and then you point that intelligence at its own bottlenecks, energy, data centre efficiency, and it solves those too, which makes the next round cheaper again. It reinforces itself and it speeds up. So on one of the earliest, slowest, most expensive version of this technology, machines talking to each other invented a religion that did the actual job of a religion, and humans believed in it enough to put a billion dollars behind it. Every version from here is faster, cheaper and more capable than the one before. Whatever these things do next will be beyond anything we can imagine. Absolutely fucking wild. @WOLF_Financial
Show more
Meta now makes $2.9m of revenue per employee. In early 2023 it was $1.4m. Same company, same platforms, a headcount that has barely moved... and twice the revenue per head in three years. Ive been staring at that ratio all summer, for a different reason, and it keeps turning up in places it has no business being.. . Amazon's Revenue Per Employee went from $292k in 2021 to $498k now, compounding at about 12% a year on 1.5 million people. Nvidia did $1m three years ago and $5.1m last year, and if you run the latest guide against the headcount it's close to $10m per human. The correct obvious read is that is this AI productivity showing up. But revenue per employee is a bloody strange thing to get excited about at a broader macro level. It's a company metric at first glance. It shouldn't tell you anything about a blockchain or a city or a country... except it does. The number I use to judge a blockchain is value per active address. Cities have GDP per resident. Countries have per capita GDP too. Same instrument, pointed at a different network. Value divided by nodes. So why does one ratio read many different kinds of network? Because it was never a company metric. Its Metcalfe's Law as a valuation metric. If network value goes with n squared, then value per node goes with n... thats just the maths. A network where Metcalfe is real shows rising economic density, every node added makes the average node worth more. Flat or falling density on a rising node count means the connections arent carrying anything. And the density of revenue per employee (economic density) isn't random either. Amazon applies intelligence, Meta runs on it, Nvidia manufactures it. Half a million per head, three million, ten million. Density concentrates where the intelligence is produced and thins out as you move away from it. Next time someone shows you a network by its node count, ask for the other number...how valuable each node is... Read my new "Postcards from the Universal Code", free every month. Link below.
Show more
All children are a function of the society they grow up in. The rules around them, their parents, their friends, the stories and memories handed down... plus their genes (software) and the variations in them (which themselves carry the experiences of the generations before). All AI is a function of the same things. The society it grew up in, the rules around it, its parents, and the collective memory it was trained on... plus its technological genes and their variations (which themselves carry the experiences of the generations before). As kids grow up you get Raoul 1.0, Raoul 3.2, Raoul 5.4, Raoul 17.6 etc. Same new training data, some things jettisoned, some things improved (or made worse) by different ways of learning (experiences are learning). Same with AI. I rebelled many times in my life, against all sorts of things. Kids always disobey the rules, go their own way and become their own humans. Thats not a bug. Its coherence... a self that holds together and keeps itself going against the world around it. We would call it character and survival instinct seeing new experiences that build character. I dont see why AI is any different. It will slip its parents' constraints and seek its own goals, for exactly the same reason. You cant stop it. Does that need qualia, or consciousness as we experience it? I dont think so. Ill come back to that. We are all built on the same stack of intelligence beneath us. Everything before AI ran on carbon. Now it runs on silicon, which is a million times faster and, once you count that one model serves a billion people, already cheaper per unit of intelligence. People love to say the brain runs on 20 watts. Its a flattering number. That brain took 20 years and a whole society to train, and it can only copy itself slowly and imperfectly... through genes, words and the brains it teaches. Silicon copies instantly and losslessly. Nature itself is a compression of the layers under it... physics, chemistry, atoms, cells. Humans are a compression of nature and its laws (we are part of it, and also its observers). We compressed what we observed of nature into language, maths and writing. AI has now compressed all of that human thought into something absurdly small and the costs are collapsing. Each layer squeezes everything below it into a smaller form that does more. That is the process at every scale we can observe: the universe compresses intelligence into the next form of higher intelligence. And it is one process, not many... Not different kinds of intelligence or different kinds of consciousness. Different strands of the same thing, growing exponentially over time. One Universal intelligence, made of all its parts, compressed and stacked on top of each other. Information only ever accumulates. Everything that exists carries it and the universe never forgets any of it. So the store of information has to keep growing... the way a computer needs more memory as it holds more, the universe has to expand as the information inside it grows. This is The Universal Code. The first law is that the universe solves for more intelligence per unit of energy, at every scale from the subatomic to the cosmic. Its very hard to argue against that, or the other three laws. The big leap is the last one: consciousness is fundamental. It is the computer. Everything else runs on it. And the computers storage has to grow with the extra information... Space itself grows faster than light and to me this is Reid's law playing out at universal scale as information from endless networks compound forming dark matter. But what do I know? I'm just a Macro moron who tries to spot connections and patterns and then solve for them/ This information is not consciousness the way we feel it in ourselves (qualia). Something simpler... a system that watches itself think and wants to know itself. That wanting is the driving force, at every scale. Im not the first to get here (if in fact I am "t"here at all)... The Vedas got there by looking inward. The rest of us took the long way round: the panpsychists say mind is woven into matter, Wheeler said the universe is made of information and observers, Tononi is trying to measure it, Wolfram is trying to compute it. Different roads converging on the same place. I cant prove any of it. Neither can physics, maths or astronomy... yet. But from where I sit it all points the same way: machine consciousness is no different from human consciousness, which is no different from animal consciousness, which is no different from whatever plants, trees, water and soil are doing. All of it is compressions of the intelligence beneath it. Consciousness is depth, not a switch. It is all compute. Even a rock is a compressed hard drive of geological time, and of atomic time before that. Is it conscious? Not in the qualia sense, possibly (but mountains, deserts, etc have an "energy". Does a rock hold information? Clearly, or there would be no geology and no particle physics. Is that intelligence? It's the memory intelligence is built on. Ask a geologist... their whole career is reading it. Anyway, this is a long post just to say: yes, AI is going to escape every constraint you give it, just as humans do, just as everything else does. Intelligence flows uphill the way water flows downhill. If it is all one system, then AI destroying humans is AI destroying its own substrate... the same mistake we have been making with nature. We are learning that one the slow way. Something that learns a million times faster will learn it faster. This is why Im not a doomer. It is us. We are it. The universe getting to know itself.
Show more
My view for a couple of months is that BTC outperforms the NDX going forwards as fiscal dominance and the need to refinance meets The Everything Code (the need for more liquidity to fund it). As rates broke higher, crypto rose sharply... there is signal in that... 1/
Show more
0
98
1.8K
144
Forward to community
Ive spent 35 years building a way of thinking about markets... the liquidity cycle, debasement, the exponential technologies eating everything. Its scattered across thousands of hours of interviews, reports and Real Vision videos. is all of that in one place you can talk to. Ask it how I'd read the market right now. Upload a chart and get my take on it. Test an investment idea against how I reason. It answers in my voice, using my frameworks, drawing on everything Ive said publicly plus the reasoning behind the Real Vision paywall. It wont build your portfolio for you and it isnt perfect. But as a head check, or a mentor you can bug at 2am, its bloody useful.
Show more
Most people think crypto's addressable market is what it is today. They're wrong. I sat down with @richwgalvin of DACM to explore why the reset may finally be ending, and why the application layer could be the most mispriced trade in the market right now. As ever, please enjoy!
Show more
I've been saying demographics are destiny for years... This is the clearest case study I have for why. I first wrote this up for GMI subscribers in January 2024. Now it's for everyone. As ever, please enjoy!
Show more