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Raoul Pal
@RaoulGMI
Founder/CEO Global Macro Investor, @RealVision. Figuring things out at the nexus of Macro, Web3 & the Exponential Age. Not a guru.
1.7K Following    1.5M Followers
I don't know what the hell they did with Opus 5 but it's an absolute shitshow of a model. It just endlessly makes mistakes, goes off down rabbit holes, doesn't finish tasks. Creates new tasks you never asked it for and just ends up in an endless loop. It's a mess. @AnthropicAI
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The Everything Code, revisited. If youre not making 11% a year, youre not actually making money. Just treading water against debasement. Only two things really beat it over time... technology and crypto. New episode is up. As ever, please enjoy!
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The mainstream read Kimi K3 precisely the wrong way. They thought: China built a frontier model on the cheap. And it's far more efficient than our frontier models! Wow, I guess all that spending on compute was wasted. We won't need so much compute after all. Sell the chips. But look at what has happened: in 48 hours, K3 was so popular they had to stop new signups. Because they ran out of compute to serve the model. It's a textbook example of Jevons Paradox Cheap, brilliant, open intelligence doesn't reduce the demand for compute. It causes demand to explode. That's because cheap intelligence gets embedded in everything. People use it to do a billion and one things. The cheaper it gets, the more people want of it. All that intelligence needs compute. We're nowhere near the top of this story. Not even close. It's just that it's hard to imagine a world in which intelligence is truly abundant. But that world is coming. And the compute it will need is monumental.
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I think Spain now holds the longest unbeaten streak in the history of international football ...38 games
I still find it staggering that there are a few macro accounts and others here on x that are so desperate to call the top in the greatest technological discovery of all time. Even if they're right, where's it going to be in five or ten years? It's just all so pointless...the universe will continue to solve for output of intelligence per unit of energy regardless of the occasionally decoherence event. I remember the same in BTC and the same in NDX... it was all noise.
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Crypto wasn’t invented for the age we came from. When Satoshi launched Bitcoin, we thought we were building a hedge against banks. Digital gold, permissionless money for humans who couldn't access banks. All true. But the humans found it hard. Keys, custody, UX... none of it felt natural. Turns out we were building the base layer for something else entirely. Agents don't struggle with keys, and smart contracts are native to machines. Every UX problem we've spent years trying to solve was a problem because the users hadn't arrived yet. Now they have. The agentic economy needs money that moves at its speed, and crypto is the only system that does. Had the greatest time sitting down with @ErikVoorhees a few weeks ago to dig into where crypto fits in the agentic world. As ever, please enjoy!
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The dot-com bust happened because companies could pull the plug. Nobody can afford to this time... the race for intelligence doesnt allow it. Latest Journeyman is solo, on why this ends up a super cycle, not a repeat. As ever, please enjoy!
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Teaching Texas the way of paella...
This is it. The pricing closes at midnight ET tonight, and whatever rate you lock tonight is yours for as long as you stay a member. After that it goes back up and stays up. The dashboards, the AI, the portfolios, the record... all of it
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𝐓𝐇𝐄 𝐅𝐈𝐍𝐀𝐋 𝐂𝐎𝐔𝐍𝐓𝐃𝐎𝐖𝐍 50%+off. Whatever you lock in the next few hours, you keep for as long as you're a member.
A lot of you told me this week what actually changed for you. Ill take that over anything I could write myself. A few hours left to lock the price for it... for as long as you're a member.
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Real Vision is something unique... a platform that compresses the vast intelligence of the community into valuable investment insights for everyone. 👇
Six months ago Real Vision looked different. Today, we have new dashboards, AI mentors you can talk to, a full set of model portfolios with the record to back them, live signals. Last day to come in at this price. Lock it in, 50%+ by midnight ET. Keep it for good.
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After midnight ET the rates go back up. If you've been waiting... this is the day. Step in.
𝐋𝐀𝐒𝐓 𝐃𝐀𝐘. 𝐌𝐈𝐃𝐍𝐈𝐆𝐇𝐓 𝐄𝐓 𝐓𝐎𝐍𝐈𝐆𝐇𝐓, 𝐉𝐔𝐋𝐘 𝟒. Whatever you lock in the next few hours, you keep for as long as you're a member.
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This week people started telling me what the rebuild actually changed for them... new dashboards giving them sharper signals, chatting with my AI mentor, transparent portfolios. Thats the whole point of building this the way we did... not features for their own sake, proof you can go back and check. One day left. Whatever you lock tonight, you keep for as long as you're a member. Midnight ET tomorrow.
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One day left. Midnight ET tomorrow, pricing closes for good. Connect 70% off, Alpha 56% off, Pro 50% off. Whatever you lock tonight, you keep for as long as you're a member.
The portfolios, the AI mentors, the dashboards... everything I said Id build is built. One day left, 50%+ off. Lock it tonight and keep this price for as long as you're a member.
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One day left. Whatever you lock tonight, you keep for as long as you're a member... after that it's gone for good. Step in.
One day left. Midnight ET tomorrow, pricing closes for good. Connect 70% off, Alpha 56% off, Pro 50% off. Whatever you lock tonight, you keep for as long as you're a member.
Pulse doesnt do a morning brief thats stale by lunch. It watches whats trending and rewrites itself all day... thats the difference between reading news and reading the market. Two days, 50%+ off. Lock the price for as long as you're a member.
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This is a new fun show where we review RV members portfolios live...
PORTFOLIO REVIEW Join @RaoulGMI and @Jamie1Coutts and @goldmembrrr as their review member's portfolios. Get into it.
Going live...
PORTFOLIO REVIEW Join @RaoulGMI and @Jamie1Coutts and @goldmembrrr as their review member's portfolios. Get into it.