Roger
@rdd147
New Mexican, Former Assistant Research Professor, Business Owner
1.2K Following 13.2K Followers
Lenders say $NVDA isn’t being truthful about its chips being an appreciable asset are no longer willing to offer ABS for them to “Neoclouds” and smaller Hyperscalers like $ORCL without $NVDA putting up collateral as much as much as 25% to back the loans. Nvidia has been hoping to offset the requirement by getting insurers to be willing to sell depreciation policies that would protect hundreds of billions of dollars in bonds as companies default.
Notably $AVGO was forced to finance $42 billion for Anthropic today, showing the situation has contagion and likely hitting $AMD as well. No chip sales without collateral for the deeply speculative bonds.
The fraud is starting to fail.
$CRWV $NBIS $IREN
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10 year jumped 0.03% the second $MU earnings hit. Doesn’t seem like much, but that’s a VERY bad sign. $TLT
$ORCL bonds crossing 8.3% for the first time after Larry Ellison used the Enron trick (first time anyone did since Enron) of “Customer Pre-Payments with a Significant Interest Component” to hide Operating Cash Flow Problems.
Notably Oracle also was the first Publicly Listed US company outside of drillers and Miners (or Covid) to use Force Majeur to avoid paying on a data center lease it couldn’t afford, since… you guessed it… Enron.
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Trump blows up on Musk, Dario, and Altman as Fitch warns a slowdown on Ai could crash markets 35% at the index level and trigger major US recession. $SPCX Anthropic OpenAi $ORCL
The fact a slowdown would cause a major recession and 35% index selloff tells you it’s a massive bubble. You literally have to accelerate borrowing and losses to avert catastrophe. That’s a bubble.
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A $300 billion company with $500 billion of debt and liabilities is no different than a $7 billion company with $12 billion of debt and liability’s.
$ORCL investors shouldn’t question my judgement on who can and can’t survive debt. I was laughed about on Sunnova as the largest solar provider and installer in the world at the time.
The signs are clear. The Oracle debt is worthless and has all been dumped by pensions with 50% losses. The shares all dumped by pensions in the past month according to 13F. The signs are clear Oracle is 2-3 years from struggling to meet its obligations.
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There is a straight up revolt by pensions to touch $ORCL debt. It’s very rare to see trading losses of 30-50% on long dated bonds 20-30 years from maturity.
Markets screaming that Oracle will never see a yield below 7% again and we’re cutting our losses to run.
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