The key stylized fact on the global bond market sell-off is that - if you run good fiscal policy and kept your debt under control - you're not hit as hard as countries that failed to do that. Markets are differentiating who's in trouble and who isn't...

I'm doing my usual Sunday morning live stream today at 9:30 am (ET) and will be talking about the supply situation for oil in the Middle East. I'll heavily feature data put out yesterday by the amazing @TankerTrackers who are the best source for this info.

If you're wondering if the global bond market sell-off is about growth or fiscal space, just look at how markets are trading. High-debt countries are getting hit much harder than low debt ones. We're in a global debt shock. Not a global growth shock...

For the past two years, Japan has been in a "Liz Truss" bond market crisis whereby its currency falls even as government bond yields go ever higher. We've never had a major G10 sovereign experience something like this and it's deeply destabilizing...

Global bond markets are on fire. Every day yields rise in one place or another. Biggest mover today is Japan, where 10y10y forward (red) is up 10 bps. That spills over to everywhere else and pushes yields up globally. We're witnessing a global sell-off...

The narrative that Iran has the upper hand is wrong. The Rial makes new lows almost every day as the blockade chokes off the economy and Iran's control over the SoH is slipping away. Iran's only leverage is to spike oil prices and that isn't working...

Markets will push Warsh until he hikes. The yield curve is already re-steepening after Friday's flattening after the hawkish keynote by Warsh. Markets see Warsh as Trump's man and want him to demonstrate his independence. Only weak data will break this...

This is one of the most compelling charts I have seen in a while showing that the moment people get anxious, the USD remains the king - yet fading. In other words, during the next economic downturn, the DXY and US treasuries will catch a bid.

US policy is focused on keeping long-term yields anchored in the face of a massive budget deficit. That's true for Treasury and the Fed and is the reason for Friday's hawkish keynote at Jackson Hole from Warsh. I explain all this in Saturday's live stream:

The risk premium on the 10-year Treasury versus foreign 10-year yields after those are hedged back into Dollars is below the Biden years. That's because the fiscal situation abroad has worsened so much. The US is still the cleanest shirt in the closet...

In the past month, when markets questioned the Fed's credibility after the dovish performance Warsh gave on July 29, bitcoin rallied more than other safe haven assets. I talk about whether bitcoin is joining the debasement trade on today's live stream:

I'm doing my usual Sunday morning live stream today at 9 am (ET). I'll talk about how gold and other precious metals will do if the Fed hikes in September (they'll be fine). I'll also talk about whether Bitcoin is part of the debasement trade (it's not)...

On yesterday's live stream, I talked about my take aways from Jackson Hole. The tail wags the dog when it comes to US policy these days. Every action aims to keep long-term yields from spiking amid rising debt and an out-of-control deficit. Watch here:

If the Fed hikes in September, it'll only do so to anchor long-term yields, though obviously that won't be the stated reason. Yield caps among rising debt and out-of-control deficits are the bread and butter of the debasement trade. Gold will keep rising.

Over the past seven full days, crude oil exports departing the US Navy blockade line averaged 6.7 million barrels per day. This figure reflects our extensive research, which combines AIS data with hundreds of daily satellite images, including the visually identified AIS-offline tankers; some of which aren't even pinging in the Middle East. It also includes vessels that reactivate their AIS days after departing the blockade line. Folks, this isn't our first rodeo. #OOTT# #IranWar# #Tankers#

I'm doing my usual live stream tomorrow morning at 9 am (ET) to talk about what a September hike by the Fed means for gold and the debasement trade. In normal times, such a hike would be bad for gold, but we're no longer in normal times. Join tomorrow!

The tail is wagging two dogs. Brooks speaking some deep insights and charts don't lie. U.S. policy is no longer about a clean inflation target. It is about stopping long-term yields from blowing out. Huge deficits. Rising debt. Emergency-feeling Treasury buybacks. A hawkish Warsh speech that looks more like yield defense than a September hike. China did the same thing with oil. It spent years filling tanks with cheap Russian and Iranian crude - on the order of 1.0–1.4 billion barrels. When Iran blew up, Beijing slashed imports by ~3 million barrels a day and sat on the stockpile. Oil did not go vertical. America is capping the price of debt. China already bought the price of energy. Bonds are pricing U.S. supply. Oil is pricing Chinese tanks.