The best independent AI economic impact researchers to follow: Stanford @SIEPR : @nealemahoney, Erika McEntarfer. McEntarfer ran the Bureau of Labor Statistics until last year. Their brief is the fairest read on whether AI is killing jobs right now. TLDR: mostly no, with a possible exception for new grads. Stanford @DigEconLab: @erikbryn, @BharatKChandar, @RuyuChen : Used payroll records from ADP, which cuts paychecks for a huge share of American workers, and found employment dropping for 22-25 year olds in jobs like software and customer support. Yale @The_Budget_Lab @marthagimbel : The strongest skeptic case. Three years after ChatGPT, the mix of jobs people hold and how long they stay unemployed both look normal. MIT @davidautor : Automation raises wages when it removes the easy parts of a job and cuts wages when it removes the hard parts. Same technology, opposite outcome, depending which end goes first. Missing from X: @ChicagoBooth: Chad Syverson: The guy to read on AI actually driving economic productivity. US productivity has picked up since 2019. He does not think the timing lines up with AI. Anders Humlum and Emilie Vestergaard: Denmark keeps records on basically every worker, so you can watch who started using AI and what happened to their hours and pay. So far: work got rearranged, paychecks didn't move. Mert Demirer @MITSloan: Everyone assumes AI eats jobs one task at a time, so humans keep whatever's left over. His work shows automation actually spreads through connected chains of steps, which is why a whole role can go at once instead of slowly shrinking. One caveat: Anton Korinek, who wrote a lot of the foundational work here, now co-authors Anthropic's economic scenarios.