1/ Four key moments from the ARG-ESP World Cup finals, starting with Spain's goal at the 106' mark:
Argentina-win book (crashed from 40% --> 12%)
- 25k shares resting within 5c when the ball crossed the line
- First cancel occurred 70ms before the ball crossed, removing liquidity at the point of foot contact
- 80% of all cancels landed within 262ms of each other, 95% of size removed from the book before takers landed
Spain-win book (ran from 60% --> 88%)
- 15k shares resting within 5c when the ball crossed the line
- Only 15% of cancels landed in time
- A 10k limit order from one maker failed to remove in time and was executed at 60.3c, accounting for the majority of the Spain-book losses associated with the goal
On June 13, Polymarket removed the taker delay for all World Cup matches. Here's what a goal looks like without it for the ARG win market at the 85' mark:
- 13,848 shares were resting within 5¢ of the ask when the ball crossed
- 90% of all cancels occurred within 65ms of each other
- First post-goal taker order lands 63ms behind the cancels and picks off less than $800
- Total sniped on a 3x book move: <$1,000 (600+ total active maker addresses, 11 adversely filled)