The skeptic's case against 24/7 markets usually centers on a single issue: a price formed at 3am on a Saturday couldn't possibly be trusted. Fair concern, but also a testable one.
New research from
@blockworksres tracked weekend trading on Hyperliquid across equities, commodities, FX, and indices. Weekend spreads matched or ran tighter than weekday levels, and typical trades filled at close to weekday cost, even with every other venue closed.
Across 614 market-weekends, the weekend price landed closer to the eventual reopen than Friday's close 70.7% of the time. On moves over 1%, it called the direction right 94.9% of the time. About 83 cents of every dollar priced over the weekend showed up at the reopen.
The skeptic’s case was tested. The 3am price wasn’t just tradeable, it was right.