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Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡
@shanaka86
Author of The Ascent Begins. Independent Analyst. Money, geopolitics, AI, science, and sovereignty. Trying to understand the reality a bit better.
Joined July 2009
3.6K Following    308.1K Followers
When South Korea tendered its first Arctic container voyage to Europe, HMM and Pan Ocean both declined to bid. The only candidate was PanStar, a regional passenger ferry operator. It bought a second hand ship from HMM in early August to run the trip. That is the commercial verdict on the Northern Sea Route, delivered by the country's own shipping industry before a single container moved. The route is real and it is running. The 1,740 container Dubai Tower left Ningbo-Zhoushan on 15th August, bound for Felixstowe on 7 September, roughly 20 days against 32 to 40 through Suez. PanStar's 2,700 container Acro sails from Busan on 22nd August, advertising 18 days to Felixstowe before Rotterdam, Hamburg and Gdansk. Eight Chinese departures are scheduled through 3rd October. What they are buying is an escape from the Red Sea. What they are paying is Russian permission. Foreign ships entering the route need a navigation permit, and the authority to grant, suspend or terminate it sits with Rosatom. Russia sets the terms for icebreaker support and ice pilotage, and nuclear icebreakers stand by for the Dubai Tower. Sanctions can restrict Russian cargo and Russian finance. They cannot remove Russia's permit desk from the map. The legal position carries a paradox worth stating carefully. Article 234 of the Law of the Sea Convention lets coastal states impose special rules where ice covers an area for most of the year. Russia also relies on domestic law and internal waters claims, so its authority does not vanish with the ice. But the warmer the corridor gets, the weaker that particular textual foundation becomes. This is an inference from the treaty, not a ruling anyone has issued. Scale keeps it honest. Container cargo on the route was about 400,000 tonnes in 2025 across 24 transits, inside total traffic of 37 million tonnes. All eight Chinese sailings together are under 0.1 percent of annual Asia to North Europe container volume. Chinese carriers are testing it. One Korean ferry company is testing it. No European or American line runs a comparable service at all. The question is not whether ice permits the voyage. It is how many shippers will accept a Russian permit to avoid a Yemeni missile.
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