On 20th September 2026, Ukraine hit Moscow’s oil refinery again. Just 3 days earlier, the International Energy Agency had described the plant, with capacity for 250,000 barrels a day, as reportedly offline until early 2027. Before counting that capacity as newly lost supply, ask how much was operating. Further damage to a shut plant can still be expensive. It can extend repairs, delay its return and keep replacement fuel coming from elsewhere. But a fire alone cannot tell us how much production stopped that night. Reuters reported on 24 June that earlier strikes had halted operations and that two industry sources expected at least 6 months of repairs. The IEA’s September assessment retained the qualification “reported.” Neither provides a confirmed production figure immediately before this weekend’s attack. Ukraine’s General Staff said 3 processing units were hit, according to Kyiv Post. That identifies the equipment Ukraine says it struck. It does not establish how much fuel those units were making, or whether the damage has extended the repair schedule. The other number circulating is 11.6 million tonnes. Reuters identifies it as the crude oil this refinery processed in 2024. An entire year’s processing, two calendar years ago, cannot be presented as supply lost on one night in September 2026. There is a reason to take a possible repair delay seriously. The IEA says major damage to complex refinery equipment can take 6 to 8 months to repair, with sanctions restricting access to some replacement equipment. The economic consequence could be fuel that was expected to return to the market remaining unavailable for longer. That additional delay has not yet been established for this strike. The drone totals require the same care. The Financial Times reported Russia’s defence ministry claiming 1,110 interceptions overnight. Reuters reported Moscow’s mayor claiming more than 1,600 since Saturday, including 450 heading toward the capital. The reporting windows overlap. The 450 is included in the broader claim. These cannot be added together or treated as independently verified counts of Ukrainian launches at Moscow. Zelensky’s 20th September statement confirmed strikes on oil and logistics facilities and named the weapons used. It gave no launch total. Without independently established numbers for launches and interceptions, a reliable interception percentage cannot be calculated. A precise official tally does not resolve that missing information. Reuters reported 2 deaths in the Moscow region and about 400 people evacuated from an apartment building in Ramenskoye. Those evacuations were from housing, not the refinery. The raid coincided with the final day of Russia’s parliamentary election. It also came 6 days after Prez Trump said both countries had agreed to stop attacking energy infrastructure. Reuters reported that Kyiv’s support remained conditional on credible Russian participation. The announced halt had not stopped the strikes. Describing this as the collapse of a confirmed energy truce would give that announcement more substance than the public record establishes.