shaunda devens(@shaundadevens):HYPE back at $50, some thoughts: The move played out pretty much exactly as expected, price was driven higher by Hyperliquid Strategies purchasing 11.12M HYPE, often at a pace of more than $100M per week. To put the scale of that buying into perspective, PURR became the largest DAT in crypto measured by percentage of circulating supply held, at roughly 10%, even higher than Strategy’s 4.5% despite the latter accumulating Bitcoin for years. Because the move was largely independent of fundamentals, driven by the DAT bid and momentum traders, with a clear invalidation once that buying stopped, it was fairly clear holders and traders would take profits into these temporarily elevated prices. Looking at PA, the move was a combination of AQAv2 news and DAT flows, and you can see how price behaves in these regimes once the incremental bid disappears. Therefore, while various theories now exist around why HYPE is going down, it seems pretty clear this is the natural resolution of a temporary move driven by telegraphed flows. Also keep in mind that although HYPE recently traded largely uncorrelated from crypto, the core business remains heavily exposed to crypto activity, with July revenue at $43M versus $92M in July last year, and price is now beginning to reflect that as well. With all that being said, it is difficult to have a strong short-term directional view at this point, especially given that we have seen zones like this turn into multi-month distribution periods, but valuation has clearly returned to a more realistic level. The questions now are whether Hyperliquid’s core crypto perps business can recover and whether it can effectively monetize newer business lines, so although I have less of a view on the short-term path from here, I remain allocated because my bias is that it can do both. Hyperliquid

2026.08.02 18:01

HYPE back at $50, some thoughts: The move played out pretty much exactly as expected, price was driven higher by Hyperliquid Strategies purchasing 11.12M HYPE, often at a pace of more than $100M per week. To put the scale of that buying into perspective, PURR became the largest DAT in crypto measured by percentage of circulating supply held, at roughly 10%, even higher than Strategy’s 4.5% despite the latter accumulating Bitcoin for years. Because the move was largely independent of fundamentals, driven by the DAT bid and momentum traders, with a clear invalidation once that buying stopped, it was fairly clear holders and traders would take profits into these temporarily elevated prices. Looking at PA, the move was a combination of AQAv2 news and DAT flows, and you can see how price behaves in these regimes once the incremental bid disappears. Therefore, while various theories now exist around why HYPE is going down, it seems pretty clear this is the natural resolution of a temporary move driven by telegraphed flows. Also keep in mind that although HYPE recently traded largely uncorrelated from crypto, the core business remains heavily exposed to crypto activity, with July revenue at $43M versus $92M in July last year, and price is now beginning to reflect that as well. With all that being said, it is difficult to have a strong short-term directional view at this point, especially given that we have seen zones like this turn into multi-month distribution periods, but valuation has clearly returned to a more realistic level. The questions now are whether Hyperliquid’s core crypto perps business can recover and whether it can effectively monetize newer business lines, so although I have less of a view on the short-term path from here, I remain allocated because my bias is that it can do both. Hyperliquid

shaunda devens@shaundadevens

2026.05.21 07:38

12 hours later, HYPE is up 15% from $50. The volume profile highlights my previous argument almost perfectly: green shows volume traded during the recent move, compared to total auctioned volume at each price level. Relatively little HYPE is actually changing hands at these new levels. The violence of the move is coming from the imbalance between aggressive buyers (DATs, ETFs, chasers) and a seller base that already had months to distribute in the prior range. However, until sellers find a material reason to step in, the path of least resistance remains higher. Higher prices can become reflexive: they validate existing holders, reduce the urgency to sell, and force sidelined buyers to chase. For example: if you are an existing holder, has this recent move made you more or less likely to sell versus when HYPE was at range lows? If you are sidelined, has this move made you more or less likely to enter? Counterintuitively, despite higher prices meaning higher multiples, the answer is likely that it increased your desire to hold and participate. That is ultimately why we buy assets: for them to go up. So where is the level where long-term holders finally sell? My bias is much higher.

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