HYPE back at $50, some thoughts: The move played out pretty much exactly as expected, price was driven higher by Hyperliquid Strategies purchasing 11.12M HYPE, often at a pace of more than $100M per week. To put the scale of that buying into perspective, PURR became the largest DAT in crypto measured by percentage of circulating supply held, at roughly 10%, even higher than Strategy’s 4.5% despite the latter accumulating Bitcoin for years. Because the move was largely independent of fundamentals, driven by the DAT bid and momentum traders, with a clear invalidation once that buying stopped, it was fairly clear holders and traders would take profits into these temporarily elevated prices. Looking at PA, the move was a combination of AQAv2 news and DAT flows, and you can see how price behaves in these regimes once the incremental bid disappears. Therefore, while various theories now exist around why HYPE is going down, it seems pretty clear this is the natural resolution of a temporary move driven by telegraphed flows. Also keep in mind that although HYPE recently traded largely uncorrelated from crypto, the core business remains heavily exposed to crypto activity, with July revenue at $43M versus $92M in July last year, and price is now beginning to reflect that as well. With all that being said, it is difficult to have a strong short-term directional view at this point, especially given that we have seen zones like this turn into multi-month distribution periods, but valuation has clearly returned to a more realistic level. The questions now are whether Hyperliquid’s core crypto perps business can recover and whether it can effectively monetize newer business lines, so although I have less of a view on the short-term path from here, I remain allocated because my bias is that it can do both. Hyperliquid

"Under our modeled case, Hyperliquid's annualized revenue run rate nearly doubles, from $498M in July to $979M by December 2026, with priority fee revenue growing to $87M annualized."

Many are fading the importance of Hyperliquid's priority fees, which are now going toe to toe with HIP-3 revenue. Excited for next week, where we break down the mechanism, adoption, and growth scenarios in what should be our best Hyperliquid report yet.

As SpaceX nears IPO, the world will watch Hyperliquid, where TradeXYZ's pre-IPO perp will be the only pre-launch instrument for exposure and the most important price reference. If you're a markets reporter, reach out. I want to be a resource for what will be essential coverage!

USDC will become an aligned stable, meaning 90% of cost-adjusted reserve yield on USDC supply accrues to Hyperliquid. At the current $5B USDC base, that could imply $137M–$160M in annualized rev at a 3%–3.5% yield, or a 22%–26% step-up vs current annualized revenue. Hyperliquid