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Simon Dedic
@sjdedic
Founder & Managing Partner @MoonrockCapital
2.5K Following    50.8K Followers
This is absolute insanity. onchain TCGs are heating up again, and like never before, as it’s also the marketplaces that are picking up traction in a big way. First @Collector_Crypt broke the onchain record with a $600k Charizard sale. Then they immediately topped it, with a $64k Lugia sale and yet another record Charizard sale at $825k. and now let this sink in: Just a few hours later, @Beezie didn't just break the onchain record, but the world record. $1M for a 1st edition Charizard from 1999. Everything fully transparent onchain, ridiculously low fees, and settled instantly without needing to trust a middleman. Congrats to the chad seller @dcfgod. I want you to realize that this has always been the bull case for these platforms. the gachas were just the gamified way to attract collectors, and now they're realizing how vastly superior these marketplaces are to eBay, Goldin and co. Soon there will be billions settled on these marketplaces.
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Tokenized equities today are exactly where stablecoins were in 2019. the first pmf is here. bringing equities onchain is just as obvious, simple, yet genius as bringing dollars onchain was back then. we've already seen the first growth spurt push us to the first few billion in onchain supply. but zoom out and it's painfully obvious we're still incredibly early. an easy 100x in growth still ahead over the next few years. here's where it gets interesting though: stablecoin growth was slower, because we spent years operating in a completely different environment. one that mocked crypto, treated it with deep skepticism, and forced us to fight regulatory headwinds the whole way. one of the biggest catalysts, the GENIUS Act, only came last year, many years after the first pmf, and accelerated stablecoin significantly. tokenized equities are positioned completely differently. there's already massive institutional interest and adoption, and tokenized equities are an obvious, compelling fit for exactly that crowd. and just days ago the SEC issued its Innovation Exemption, explicitly allowing tokenized stocks to trade onchain, actively pushing this development forward instead of fighting it. so I think tokenized equities are equally obvious with equally asymmetric upside as stablecoins in 2019. except this time it's going to move much, much faster. one of the biggest opportunities forming in this space right now.
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Wondering why not more people are talking about this, so I think you either missed it or don't realize how huge it is: a shadowless PSA 10 1st edition Charizard sold onchain yesterday for $600k (!!). the fees were literally $0. now compare that to the Charizard sold in the Logan Paul x Goldin auction: the winning bid was $770,000. the final price was $954,800. that's a stunning 24% in fees, and as a cherry on top, you get settlement that's slow af, complicated KYC, annoying physical logistics, and horrendous customs taxes on top of it. annoying for the seller, annoying for the buyer, only good for the extractive middleman. whether you're a fan of Gachas or not, one thing you can't deny: these marketplaces are orders of magnitude better when built onchain. and I'm amazed to see it already happening as we speak. decacorn potential here.
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The two best onchain collectible platforms on the single best crypto podcast out there. Shout out to the chad @JasonYanowitz for always staying ahead of the curve in this fast paced industry, while somehow still being able to spread the wheat from the chaff. Strongly recommend listening to this interview with @TuomHolmberg and @AndreaMYellie, two of my favorite founders pioneering an entirely new market that is only going to grow bigger from here. tldr: collectors gonna collect, but onchain.
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I wouldn't be a millennial German crypto native if I didn't ape a Pudgy Penguins x Schleich collab. People outside Germany probably don't realize what kind of a big deal Schleich is. I collected these as a kid already, and kids today still do. This is Pengu quietly walking into millions of homes that have never heard the word crypto, and never will. That's the whole game.
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mega VC circle-jerk infra rounds are dead. long live onchain businesses and investable liquid tokens. we’re not going back to a “rising tide lifts all boats” mode for crypto, where you can throw a dart at Coingecko and look like a genius. but I’m pretty convinced that if you’re throwing that dart at a list of actual onchain businesses with investable tokens, it’s not at all unlikely you hit several 100xs over the next few years. smaller board, bigger prizes.
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Ethena and @gdog97_ are a prime example of the kind of project that will succeed over the next decade: 1) A highly committed founder / team who executes and innovates non stop 2) Actual product market fit, offering something the market is genuinely willing to pay for 3) Aligns the token with the success of the business, and treats its holders as real stakeholders rather than exit liquidity 4) Underlying fundamentals / cashflows strong enough that demand for the token structurally outpaces supply Run this playbook and you have a very good shot at becoming a multi billion dollar company in a secularly growing industry where being genuinely good and committed is still rare enough to make you an outlier almost by default. Ignore it and you go to zero.
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The biggest catalysts I see for Collector Crypt over the next few months as one of their early investors: 1) The CLARITY Act and increasing regulatory clarity. Collector Crypt is probably THE project with the most attractive ratio of revenue generation to market cap out there, and the reason for that is that people have doubts about what they're actually buying with the token. Increasing regulatory clarity will clear those doubts out of the way and lead to a massive repricing. Those who put in the work now and decide for themselves how committed and trustable this team really is should benefit from that repricing, and from the massive discount available right now. On top of that, I'm firmly convinced it will be a huge edge for Collector down the line that they're specifically NOT burning 50-100% of their revenue on buybacks just to keep token holders and short term community members happy. Instead they reinvest it into the business to strengthen their market position and compound massively over time. 2) The Pokemon 30th anniversary is coming up next month. I think it's going to get really loud around Pokemon and TCGs again, both inside and outside of crypto. How could Collector Crypt not benefit from that. 3) The CARDS 1 year anniversary is also coming up next month. They've already announced the return of their "gacha games," which was a big success before, and I wouldn't be surprised if there are more surprises lined up, especially as it aligns with the Pokemon anniversary. Expect this to bring significant attention, users and volume back to both their gacha and their secondary marketplace. 4) They have a massive new product release coming up in October. I want to avoid saying too much, as it's highly confidential and they obviously want to remain competitive, but a few community members have already connected the dots and hinted at it. If you do some digging, you should be able to do the same. What I can say is that it will be a completely new product offering at a huge scale. I'm confident this will not only bring Collector Crypt to a huge number of non-crypto people and finally make it grow outside of this crypto echo chamber without people even realizing it, but at the same time bring huge amounts of supply onchain. I wish I could say more, but I strongly believe this will be the key differentiating factor for Collector Crypt to establish itself as the absolute incumbent, hit escape velocity, and grow at an unprecedented speed. 5) Overall market conditions. While I'm excited that they'll soon build market share outside of crypto too, the crypto native business is still hugely important. I was impressed by the volume crypto natives already drove on the platform during a bear market, so I don't even want to imagine the kind of volume they'll drive in a bull market, when everyone has made money and is far more willing to spend it loosely on things they love. To sum it up: I think the current $CARDS prices are an absolute blessing for anyone willing to do some research, and for those willing to think a bit longer term than 2 days. Sure, I might be biased here, as I'm an early investor in Collector Crypt. For what it's worth, we still hold our venture position despite the fact it's fully unlocked already, and bought even more on the liquid market. But that's also exactly why I'm close to the team and speak with them regularly, so I genuinely feel comfortable vouching for this team, their trustworthiness, and their commitment to their token holders. @TuomHolmberg will probably hate me for this tweet, but it's time for people to wake up to what might be one of the most underpriced assets and greatest onchain businesses in the entire industry.
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Imagine gambling your stack away with leverage at the very beginning of a massive bull run, when you could just comfortably sit spot in the best onchain businesses and let time do the magic of compounding. Everyone wants to be early until being early means just sitting still and waiting.
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The market turns green for few days and suddenly the timeline is euphoric again, everyone posting their gains, everyone an expert. Let me offer a different, more useful take: how to make the most out of the next 12 months. First, understand where we are. This is the very beginning, not the end. When the timeline gets loud you assume it's a top signal, but the real top is when your barber, your Uber driver and your mom are asking which coin to buy. We are nowhere near that. The single biggest mistake you can make right now is letting your bear market scars make your decisions for you. After more than a year of everything bleeding, your instincts are broken. Every green candle feels like the top. Every 2x feels like a gift you need to grab before it disappears. So you sell, you take the small win, you feel relief, and then you watch the thing you sold do another 10x without you. That's not risk management. That's just bear ptsd, and it will cost you this entire cycle. In a bear market you're rewarded for caution. In a bull market you're rewarded for conviction. The hardest part is flipping your brain from one mode to the other at the right time, and most people flip far too late. A few things that actually help: Hold your highest conviction positions through the volatility. Your winners can run longer than you might think. Don't rotate out of a 3x into some "cheaper" play and miss the 20x. But holding doesn't mean never taking profit. Have a plan for both directions before emotion decides for you. Sell on a plan, never on fear. Trust the teams that shipped through the entire bear. Be far more careful with the ones that only appeared last week. And accept that you will miss things. Coins you looked at will 50x without you. Let them go. Chasing what you missed is exactly how you buy tops. You survived the longest bear market, which was the most difficult part. But now it’s time to make the most out of it. Having said that, enjoy it. You earned what’s ahead of us.
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these are not shitcoins. these are multi-billion dollar onchain businesses running like low cap memecoins right now. this is what it looks like when fundamentals and momentum finally align. and we're just getting started.
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Beezie new daily ATH in Gacha spent volume Onchain collectibles supercycle fully intact
That feeling when the entire market bounces with giant green candles after slowly bleeding and going sideways for over a year, and the whole timeline all of a sudden starts to hope again. Bottom is in.
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True but sad story: I just got off a call with the founder of a token with a 9-figure FDV. He told me that a listing manager at a Tier 1 CEX asked them to buy him a new Range Rover for the listing. They obviously thought it was a joke and naturally refused. Right after that, their listing application was rejected. Send all CEXs to 0.
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every project focused on acquiring users outside the CT crypto bubble is basically in up only mode right now. slowly for a long time, then all at once. lesson in there.
While everyone was hating on PumpFun and calling their revenue fake, they took that exact so-called fake revenue and bought back their own token at the very lows for 6 straight months. The coolest comeback would be if they ran $PUMP back to new ATHs, ending up on one of the fattest buyback treasuries in crypto history worth close to a billion, purely because they believed in themselves when nobody else did. So far they're only 4% away from flipping positive on it. Never bet against people who put their money where their mouth is.
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Signs of the bottom being in. One thing @blknoiz06 forgot here: Speaking to many of the top founders and investors day to day, it’s incredible how much progress is happening in the space, and how many great announcements / integrations / partnerships etc most builders already have lined up. They’re just not releasing them, because they think it’ll fizzle out in these market conditions. The moment sentiment turns and all these companies start shipping the plethora of updates they’ve been sitting on, it’ll turn into a cascade of reflexive price action faster than any of you burnt out bears could imagine right now. Fun times ahead.
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One of the most fascinating shifts I've noticed lately: Non-crypto natives are more bullish on this industry than crypto natives themselves right now. You feel it clearly in LP conversations while being out there raising. The crypto crowd is tired and keeps telling you to pivot to AI and robotics. The traditional investors are leaning in, drawn by the fundamentals we've built over the past few years and the regulatory tailwinds finally landing. It doesn't feel obvious yet, but it's exactly these backend shifts that will carry the entire industry higher for longer, and the sentiment shift screams bottom at me. The best time to bet on crypto is right now.
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If this is what a bear market looks like, I don't even want to imagine the bull.