everyone's got that one rule they swear by. "just stay above the 200 day moving average and you dodge every crash, easy money, sleep like a baby." never seen anyone actually back it with numbers though, so i had horizon run it instead of trusting vibes. dead simple rule on QQQ going back to 2018. long when price closes above the 200 day sma, flat the second it closes below, back in when it reclaims. no extra filters, no discretion, just the line doing the talking. 9 trades total in over 8 years. thats the whole strategy. 7 winners, 2 losers, 77.78% win rate, +268% total return, ~17% CAGR, profit factor of 7.05. horizon scored it 64/100, "viable." ngl thats a solid card for something this basic. heres the part that never makes it into the "just follow the trend" tweets though. even with all that green, the equity curve was sitting underwater from its last high 78.77% of the time. one single trade in april 2022 ate a straight -21% before the rule even caught the whipsaw. it's not a smooth line up and to the right, its long stretches of nothing followed by a handful of trades doing all the work. the rule isnt fake. it's just way less comfortable to actually hold than it sounds when someone posts it as a golden rule with no context. built and backtested the whole thing on horizon in plain english, no spreadsheet, no coding it myself. you can go try it yourself and test your own strategy