Gavin Baker owned 15% of Nvidia and 10% of Tesla sub-$2 billion. His biggest regret won't be either. It'll be the price you'll pay for SpaceX after the IPO.
"A company like this comes once in your career. Thank God I took it. Plenty of people didn't."
His analog: British East India Company. Empire scale, not tech scale.
The setup:
- 10,000 SpaceX employees could have sold every 6 months for a decade
- Almost nobody did
- Secondary pricing is a decade underpriced
Baker on the Elon-Anthropic partnership: "Four months ago it didn't exist. Then it made sense. Everyone has a price."
Incumbents realign around SpaceX gravity when it moves.
The IPO doesn't price the company. It prices the last window.
Jensen Huang publicly named who's winning the AI race. Not OpenAI. Not Anthropic. Not Google.
Elon Musk.
His reasoning wasn't personality. It was infrastructure math:
- Tesla's AI factory is stacked with NVIDIA hardware
- Tesla's road fleet is the largest world-data collection system on Earth
- Musk owns the 3 verticals Jensen calls "the most important areas of AI":
- xAI — foundation cognitive intelligence
- Tesla — autonomous vehicles
- Optimus — humanoid robotics
"Collecting world data is very expensive. Elon has a great advantage."
Read the sentence again. The CEO of the company that sells chips to every AI lab on Earth just picked one customer as the structural winner.
Everyone else is renting compute and buying data. Musk built both from scratch. The next 5 years reward whoever owns the pipeline, not whoever ships the best benchmark.