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Stock Talk
@stocktalkweekly
AHEAD OF THE HERD ™ | See our full portfolio and all live entries/exits at
Joined August 2020
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The 10-Year Treasury yield fell 5 basis points today, opening the door for a broad rally in stocks. Odds for a rate hike at the upcoming October 28 Fed meeting fell dramatically to 26% vs. 69% just a week ago, partially on the back of Fed commentary that patience was warranted for further hikes. Tomorrow morning, we have jobs data (nonfarm payrolls) and U.S. unemployment rate report. Soft numbers for jobs will likely lead to further softness in yields, allowing for continuation of today's move. On the other hand, strong numbers could interrupt follow-through of today's rally. In the backdrop, we have continued mixed headlines around the Iran war, but it has been widely reported this week from several news outlets that Iran is losing leverage over the Strait as crude oil exports from other Gulf nations are getting closer to pre-war levels, which would be positive for U.S. leverage in securing an optically favorable deal. Lots of moving pieces, but the charts are setting up nicely and today's action was fantastic. The equity market has been acting like a beach ball held under water lately, and the selling in bonds is starting to look extended to the downside. Let's hope for a good close to the week!
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