TBPN(@tbpn):"Expert" AI forecasters are actually really good at predicting developments 'internal' to AI, like progress on model benchmarks, but pretty bad at predicting what AI's real-world impact will be (and when it will show up). @thestalwart and @johncoogan:

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TBPN@tbpn

2026.09.17 21:32

"Expert" AI forecasters are actually really good at predicting developments 'internal' to AI, like progress on model benchmarks, but pretty bad at predicting what AI's real-world impact will be (and when it will show up). @thestalwart and @johncoogan: