Are record-high indices hiding a concentration problem? The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are both at all-time highs. But 78% of stocks declined in September, and 54% sit at least 15% below their 52-week high. The S&P's 3-month correlation to its equal-weight index just fell to .49, with Mag7 and a handful of AI-adjacent firms leading the market and holding the indices together. Yet the same market could be historically cheap by one measure: the S&P's PEG ratio, with median forward P/E now just 16.6. --- Our latest edition of TDR Pro gives you @JustDeauIt 's full read on the macro and market regime behind these conflicting signals. If you'd like to access the research, unlock TDR Pro below and get one month free👇

Are record-high indices hiding a concentration problem? The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are both at all-time highs. But 78% of stocks declined in September, and 54% sit at least 15% below their 52-week high. The S&P's 3-month correlation to its equal-weight index just fell to .49, with Mag7 and a handful of AI-adjacent firms leading the market and holding the indices together. Yet the same market could be historically cheap by one measure: the S&P's PEG ratio, with median forward P/E now just 16.6. --- Our latest edition of TDR Pro gives you @JustDeauIt 's full read on the macro and market regime behind these conflicting signals. If you'd like to access the research, unlock TDR Pro below and get one month free👇

Stocks are at all-time highs. They are also the cheapest they've been relative to growth expectations in 30 years. ---- A bizarre setup we covered in this week's edition of TDR Pro. We also covered the setup across the crypto ecosystem and shared why we think peak macro risk is now behind us. If you'd like to access the report and gain access to our portfolio + receive alerts when we make changes, see below to get one month free 👇

Almost one year after moving risk-off, @JustDeauIt is back to risk-on. - bitcoin:native is 97 days removed from what increasingly looks like its $58.5k cycle low. - Open interest remains nearly 47% below the prior-cycle high, with funding barely positive — leverage has reset. - 86% of the top 50 assets outperformed BTC over 30 days; 96% did so last week — participation has broadened. - Yet stablecoin supply shows no inflection, while ETF flows have come off considerably. The stablecoin-supply signal for truly risk-on conditions is still missing. Michael’s next focus is BTC’s direction and what that means for liquidity across crypto. —- Our latest edition of TDR Pro gives you Michael’s full market read, key levels and portfolio management. If you’d like access, sign up below👇

Almost one year after moving risk-off, @JustDeauIt is back to risk-on. - bitcoin:native is 97 days removed from what increasingly looks like its $58.5k cycle low. - Open interest remains nearly 47% below the prior-cycle high, with funding barely positive — leverage has reset. - 86% of the top 50 assets outperformed BTC over 30 days; 96% did so last week — participation has broadened. - Yet stablecoin supply shows no inflection, while ETF flows have come off considerably. The stablecoin-supply signal for truly risk-on conditions is still missing. Michael’s next focus is BTC’s direction and what that means for liquidity across crypto. —- Our latest edition of TDR Pro gives you Michael’s full market read, key levels and portfolio management. If you’d like access, sign up below👇

Every position in our portfolio traces back to a thesis built when the bear market was still consensus. The current shape: > Store of Value — 30.0% > Consumer Retail/Social Trading — 23.0% > Memes — 11.7% > Onchain Options — 9.8% > Onchain Perps — 8.1% > Stablecoins — 7.5% > AI & Digital Identity — 3.7% The portfolio is up 132% in total, with non-BTC positions up 203%. None of these theme were added for this market. Each one is now being re-tested against the same question: does the thesis that justified it in the bear still hold now that the price has moved. —- @JustDeauIt ran that re-test, theme by theme, in our latest 'Risk Management update' Report. If you are yet to read the report, see comments below to access it.👇

Every position in our portfolio traces back to a thesis built when the bear market was still consensus. The current shape: > Store of Value — 30.0% > Consumer Retail/Social Trading — 23.0% > Memes — 11.7% > Onchain Options — 9.8% > Onchain Perps — 8.1% > Stablecoins — 7.5% > AI & Digital Identity — 3.7% The portfolio is up 132% in total, with non-BTC positions up 203%. None of these theme were added for this market. Each one is now being re-tested against the same question: does the thesis that justified it in the bear still hold now that the price has moved. —- @JustDeauIt ran that re-test, theme by theme, in our latest 'Risk Management update' Report. If you are yet to read the report, see comments below to access it.👇

What are your bull-market price targets and what are you basing them on? In our latest report, @JustDeauIt shares his updated targets, which are a rough guide to where prices can go in a bull market. He bases them on fundamentals, token economics and relative valuations, alongside projected growth by theme and sector. Historical precedent also matters. So does the macro setup around projected liquidity conditions and new SEC/CFTC rules and exemptions. Michael expects those targets to be updated as the cycle progresses. The target is therefore built from several inputs that can change as the cycle changes. —- Michael lays out the updated bull-market price targets in the Risk Management Update released recently. If you are interested, sign up to unlock TDR Pro below and get a month free.👇

June 30: BTC hits its cycle low. July 1: Robinhood Chain launches + sees immediate activity & speculation. PONS nearly $1m in revenue by 7/15. Onchain peaks in early September, followed by a 60-80% drop in fundamentals and prices. September: Onchain assets hand the baton to quality alts, which re-rate aggressively (with others discovered for the first time off the lows). 96% of the top 50 coins outperform BTC. Now. Over the last 30 days or so, BTC and the majors are up roughly 6-12%. Holding strong. In a range. Technical "early bull" confirmation is in. Meanwhile, the bears focus on macro (while ignoring the fact that the entire space underwent a market structure & leverage reset over the last year). BTC leads the next move in my opinion. ---- I'm sharing a full update on the current conditions with Pro Members tomorrow. If you'd like to have the report hit your inbox when it's published + access our portfolio (and receive alerts when we make changes), you can sign up below and get one month free 👇

What are your bull-market price targets and what are you basing them on? In our latest report, @JustDeauIt shares his updated targets, which are a rough guide to where prices can go in a bull market. He bases them on fundamentals, token economics and relative valuations, alongside projected growth by theme and sector. Historical precedent also matters. So does the macro setup around projected liquidity conditions and new SEC/CFTC rules and exemptions. Michael expects those targets to be updated as the cycle progresses. The target is therefore built from several inputs that can change as the cycle changes. —- Michael lays out the updated bull-market price targets in the Risk Management Update released recently. If you are interested, sign up to unlock TDR Pro below and get a month free.👇

We entered ethereum:0x232ce3bd40fcd6f80f3d55a522d03f25df784ee2 at roughly a $250m market cap. At the time, @JustDeauIt saw @Lighter_xyz as a differentiated product in the onchain perps market, with Ethereum alignment, potential Robinhood distribution and an opportunity to capture the growth of RWA perps. A lot of that has since played out. The @ethereum community embraced the product. Lighter was integrated into Robinhood Wallet. RWA volumes have grown 46%. LIT rose 453% from our initial entry, reaching a $1.3b market cap, and outperformed HYPE by 227% at its local peak. The asset has since re-rated closer to fair value. We’re now watching the next stage: CFTC licensing, institutional/RWA adoption, and how LIT’s valuation evolves relative to HYPE. --- Want to see how ethereum:0x232ce3bd40fcd6f80f3d55a522d03f25df784ee2 fits into the broader portfolio? In our latest TDR Pro report we breakdown our portfolio by category and position, along with the research and alerts behind our decisions. unlock below for one month free👇.

We entered ethereum:0x232ce3bd40fcd6f80f3d55a522d03f25df784ee2 at roughly a $250m market cap. At the time, @JustDeauIt saw @Lighter_xyz as a differentiated product in the onchain perps market, with Ethereum alignment, potential Robinhood distribution and an opportunity to capture the growth of RWA perps. A lot of that has since played out. The @ethereum community embraced the product. Lighter was integrated into Robinhood Wallet. RWA volumes have grown 46%. LIT rose 453% from our initial entry, reaching a $1.3b market cap, and outperformed HYPE by 227% at its local peak. The asset has since re-rated closer to fair value. We’re now watching the next stage: CFTC licensing, institutional/RWA adoption, and how LIT’s valuation evolves relative to HYPE. --- Want to see how ethereum:0x232ce3bd40fcd6f80f3d55a522d03f25df784ee2 fits into the broader portfolio? In our latest TDR Pro report we breakdown our portfolio by category and position, along with the research and alerts behind our decisions. unlock below for one month free👇.

Once a non-consensus thesis becomes consensus, what remains to justify the position? @JustDeauIt highlighted four questions in his position framework: Has the market caught up to the non-consensus view? If not, what is it still missing? Are there any signals that invalidate the thesis? What catalysts could re-rate it even further? —- In our latest report on ‘Risk Management Update’, @JustDeauIt works through those questions position by position, covering the thesis, current risk/reward, catalysts, and updated bull-market price targets. If you’d like to read the research, unlock TDR Pro for one month free below.👇

Once a non-consensus thesis becomes consensus, what remains to justify the position? @JustDeauIt highlighted four questions in his position framework: Has the market caught up to the non-consensus view? If not, what is it still missing? Are there any signals that invalidate the thesis? What catalysts could re-rate it even further? —- In our latest report on ‘Risk Management Update’, @JustDeauIt works through those questions position by position, covering the thesis, current risk/reward, catalysts, and updated bull-market price targets. If you’d like to read the research, unlock TDR Pro for one month free below.👇

NEW REPORT: Macro Concerns? Crypto’s Bull Case vs. Rising Rates Crypto is acting like a bull market even as macro risks keep building. @JustDeauIt and @RyanSAdams break down why Bitcoin and altcoins are shrugging off rising yields, rate-hike fears, and oil volatility, what the market reset is signaling, and why Mike still believes crypto is early in a new cycle. They also cover the risks that could finally challenge that view. [TIMESTAMPS] 0:00 Intro 0:24 Macro Second Look 4:01 Crypto Outperforms Macro 6:26 Market Structure Reset 10:12 Macro Risk Tour 20:53 Liquidity and Volatility 24:53 Bull Case Holds 29:23 Stocks and AI Breadth 32:15 Bull Market Price Targets 38:04 New Referral Program

NEW REPORT: Onchain Activity is Heating Up…What Comes Next? Bitcoin is flashing early-bull signals, but the all-clear still isn’t here. @JustDeauIt and @RyanSAdams break down the new Golden Cross, why $69.9K and $80.4K define the next move, and how rising onchain speculation compares with early 2023. They also dive into PUMP vs. PONS, Robinhood Chain’s breakout, mobile-first crypto trading, and whether this new wave of risk-taking is just getting started. [TIMESTAMPS] 0:00 Intro 0:12 Bull Market Setup 3:49 Bitcoin’s Key Levels 9:20 Golden Cross Explained 13:33 Alt Season or Not 19:36 2023 Speculation Replay 24:09 PONS and Robinhood Surge 36:20 ETH’s Role in the Rally 39:55 Macro Risks Ahead 43:49 Portfolio Risk Management

NEW REPORT: Bitcoin’s Early Bull vs. September Weakness Bitcoin’s 23% surge may have marked the end of the bear market—but September could still deliver one more shakeout. @JustDeauIt and @RyanSAdams break down the early-bull signals emerging across Bitcoin and crypto, why $69.4K is the key level to watch, and how the Treasury “put” is reshaping the macro backdrop. They also cover Saylor’s return to buying, rising onchain speculation, and whether investors are still early to the next cycle. [TIMESTAMPS] 0:00 Intro 0:18 Bull or September? 3:17 Speed-Running the Cycle Low 17:52 Mixed Signals, Early Bull 26:54 Debasement Trade and Macro 38:50 September Cooldown Ahead 43:19 Mindset and Missed Gains

NEW REPORT: Is AI Entering the "DAT Season" Stage of the Cycle? AI may be entering its late-cycle phase as Wall Street finds new ways to keep the boom funded. @JustDeauIt and @RyanSAdams unpack Nvidia’s $500 billion financing push, why it echoes crypto’s DAT season, and whether leverage is extending the AI trade or creating hidden risk. They also cover Treasury buybacks, Bitcoin’s $60K–$65K buy wall, and where Mike sees the next “fat pitch” opportunity. [TIMESTAMPS] 0:00 Intro 0:13 AI Trade Setup 3:12 On-Chain Milestone 6:57 Bitcoin Buy Wall 10:59 Treasury Buyback Shift 14:14 NVIDIA’s Credit Machine 25:24 AI Bull vs Bear 30:21 Real Yields Surge 36:03 Bear Market Outlook 39:04 The Next Fat Pitch

NEW REPORT: QE Lite, Rising Yields & Bitcoin’s Final Bear Market Test Bitcoin may be entering the final stretch of the bear market, but macro risks are starting to build. @JustDeauIt and @RyanSAdams break down the Treasury’s new “QE Lite” play, why 30-year yields are breaking to 20-year highs, and how intervention in the yen could ripple across global markets. They also cover gold’s latest surge, Bitcoin’s key cycle levels, and whether one final risk-off move could send BTC toward deep value territory before the next expansion. [TIMESTAMPS] 0:00 Intro 0:14 Bear Market Finale Setup 3:33 Onchain Cohorts & Capitulation 10:09 Weak Volumes, Miner Selling 13:30 Inflation, Yen, & Gold 17:53 Treasury Yields Break Higher 26:04 Yen And Nasdaq Divergence 32:11 Bitcoin Price Scenarios Ahead 38:20 solana:pumpCmXqMfrsAkQ5r49WcJnRayYRqmXz6ae8H7H9Dfn Thesis & Cycle Upside

NEW REPORT: Bitcoin vs. Nasdaq — Is This Rally a Trap? The Nasdaq has nearly erased a 10% selloff, but the bond market may be telling a very different story. @JustDeauIt and @RyanSAdams break down why the Fed may be letting rising long-term yields tighten financial conditions, whether the rally in equities is built to last, and why Bitcoin may have already bottomed relative to the Nasdaq even if both markets still have more pain ahead. They also cover Bitcoin’s cycle metrics, Strategy’s latest bitcoin:native sales, and the possibility of one final move toward $55K before the next major buying opportunity. [TIMESTAMPS] 0:21 NASDAQ vs Bitcoin 2:04 Market Whipsaw Explained 6:32 Bitcoin Cycle Check 13:16 Strategy’s Bitcoin Stress 16:06 Bitcoin Dominance Shift 22:39 Bitcoin Versus QQQ 26:43 Fed Lets Yields Run 34:39 Staying Patient Into Year-End