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The DeFi Report
@the_defi_report
Industry-leading research, market insights, and onchain data. Access our Portfolio with TDR Pro (one month free) 👉
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NEW REPORT: Onchain Activity is Heating Up…What Comes Next? Bitcoin is flashing early-bull signals, but the all-clear still isn’t here. @JustDeauIt and @RyanSAdams break down the new Golden Cross, why $69.9K and $80.4K define the next move, and how rising onchain speculation compares with early 2023. They also dive into PUMP vs. PONS, Robinhood Chain’s breakout, mobile-first crypto trading, and whether this new wave of risk-taking is just getting started. [TIMESTAMPS] 0:00 Intro 0:12 Bull Market Setup 3:49 Bitcoin’s Key Levels 9:20 Golden Cross Explained 13:33 Alt Season or Not 19:36 2023 Speculation Replay 24:09 PONS and Robinhood Surge 36:20 ETH’s Role in the Rally 39:55 Macro Risks Ahead 43:49 Portfolio Risk Management
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NEW REPORT: Bitcoin’s Early Bull vs. September Weakness Bitcoin’s 23% surge may have marked the end of the bear market—but September could still deliver one more shakeout. @JustDeauIt and @RyanSAdams break down the early-bull signals emerging across Bitcoin and crypto, why $69.4K is the key level to watch, and how the Treasury “put” is reshaping the macro backdrop. They also cover Saylor’s return to buying, rising onchain speculation, and whether investors are still early to the next cycle. [TIMESTAMPS] 0:00 Intro 0:18 Bull or September? 3:17 Speed-Running the Cycle Low 17:52 Mixed Signals, Early Bull 26:54 Debasement Trade and Macro 38:50 September Cooldown Ahead 43:19 Mindset and Missed Gains
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NEW REPORT: Is AI Entering the "DAT Season" Stage of the Cycle? AI may be entering its late-cycle phase as Wall Street finds new ways to keep the boom funded. @JustDeauIt and @RyanSAdams unpack Nvidia’s $500 billion financing push, why it echoes crypto’s DAT season, and whether leverage is extending the AI trade or creating hidden risk. They also cover Treasury buybacks, Bitcoin’s $60K–$65K buy wall, and where Mike sees the next “fat pitch” opportunity. [TIMESTAMPS] 0:00 Intro 0:13 AI Trade Setup 3:12 On-Chain Milestone 6:57 Bitcoin Buy Wall 10:59 Treasury Buyback Shift 14:14 NVIDIA’s Credit Machine 25:24 AI Bull vs Bear 30:21 Real Yields Surge 36:03 Bear Market Outlook 39:04 The Next Fat Pitch
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NEW REPORT: QE Lite, Rising Yields & Bitcoin’s Final Bear Market Test Bitcoin may be entering the final stretch of the bear market, but macro risks are starting to build. @JustDeauIt and @RyanSAdams break down the Treasury’s new “QE Lite” play, why 30-year yields are breaking to 20-year highs, and how intervention in the yen could ripple across global markets. They also cover gold’s latest surge, Bitcoin’s key cycle levels, and whether one final risk-off move could send BTC toward deep value territory before the next expansion. [TIMESTAMPS] 0:00 Intro 0:14 Bear Market Finale Setup 3:33 Onchain Cohorts & Capitulation 10:09 Weak Volumes, Miner Selling 13:30 Inflation, Yen, & Gold 17:53 Treasury Yields Break Higher 26:04 Yen And Nasdaq Divergence 32:11 Bitcoin Price Scenarios Ahead 38:20 solana:pumpCmXqMfrsAkQ5r49WcJnRayYRqmXz6ae8H7H9Dfn Thesis & Cycle Upside
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NEW REPORT: Bitcoin vs. Nasdaq — Is This Rally a Trap? The Nasdaq has nearly erased a 10% selloff, but the bond market may be telling a very different story. @JustDeauIt and @RyanSAdams break down why the Fed may be letting rising long-term yields tighten financial conditions, whether the rally in equities is built to last, and why Bitcoin may have already bottomed relative to the Nasdaq even if both markets still have more pain ahead. They also cover Bitcoin’s cycle metrics, Strategy’s latest bitcoin:native sales, and the possibility of one final move toward $55K before the next major buying opportunity. [TIMESTAMPS] 0:21 NASDAQ vs Bitcoin 2:04 Market Whipsaw Explained 6:32 Bitcoin Cycle Check 13:16 Strategy’s Bitcoin Stress 16:06 Bitcoin Dominance Shift 22:39 Bitcoin Versus QQQ 26:43 Fed Lets Yields Run 34:39 Staying Patient Into Year-End
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NEW REPORT: Can the Economy Handle Rate Hikes? The Fed may be forced to hike into an economy that looks strong on the surface but is weakening underneath. @JustDeauIt and @RyanSAdams unpack the fault lines in labor, housing, savings, and credit, why the AI trade may be rolling over, and how one final risk-off move could send Bitcoin toward $55K before the next major buying opportunity. [TIMESTAMPS] 0:00 Intro 0:17 Fed Hike Shock Ahead 2:36 Market Signals Tighten 6:37 Fed Independence Questioned 11:10 Economy Under Pressure 16:32 Housing Fault Lines 21:14 Dollar Strength Warning 24:17 After the Sell-Off 28:40 Global Liquidity Outlook 31:00 Portfolio Patience
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NEW REPORT: Bitcoin’s Bear Market Is 80% Over? One More Lower Low Coming? $BTC may be 80% through its bear market, but the bottom still isn’t confirmed. @JustDeauIt and @RyanSAdams unpack weak demand, rising macro pressure, the risk of one more lower low, and why $63K and $73K now matter most. [TIMESTAMPS] 0:00 Intro 3:27 Fair Value and Capitulation 8:10 Time-Based Selloff 13:07 Searching for Demand 16:13 Miners Under Pressure 18:45 Strategy and Saylor 21:25 Iran and Oil Risk 28:28 AI Speculation Peaks 34:06 Macro or On-Chain? 37:04 Bitcoin Levels to Watch 41:25 TDR Updates and Outlook
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NEW REPORT: TDR Pro’s 1st-Year Portfolio Audit: Wins, Learnings & the Current Portfolio @JustDeauIt opens the books on TDR Pro’s first year: a portfolio up 13% through a crypto bear market, 53% realized gains, and a timely risk-off call before Bitcoin fell 45%. @RyanSAdams and Mike audit the wins, misses, and process behind the performance. [TIMESTAMPS] 0:00 Intro 5:12 Portfolio Goals and Sleep Well 10:46 Realized Gains and Bitcoin Alpha 13:50 Unrealized Gains in Bear Market 17:30 Lessons From the Bull Run 23:34 Misses, Lessons, and Flexibility 31:01 Current Portfolio Sectors 36:52 Using TDR Pro With AI 42:57 Transparency and Performance Updates 46:33 Final Grade for the Year
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NEW REPORT: Is the Bitcoin Low Really In? Bitcoin bounced, but the bottom still isn’t confirmed. @JustDeauIt and @RyanSAdams unpack the missing coin-rotation signal, weak ETF and spot demand, @saylor's bitcoin:native sale, and why $50K remains in play. [TIMESTAMPS] 0:00 Intro 0:14 Bitcoin Low Or Not? 5:06 Trench Revival In Crypto 6:55 Why Mike Still Sees Lower 12:59 The Coin Rotation Debate 19:31 ETF Demand And Volume Check 23:52 Saylor, Clarity, And Zcash 34:25 Closing Bets And Performance Report
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NEW REPORT: Bitcoin’s Green Light…Buy Now or Wait for One More Flush? bitcoin:native is back near historic buy-zone levels, but the bottom still isn’t confirmed. @JustDeauIt and @RyanSAdams unpack the green-light indicators, the risk of one final flush, and what past cycles say about future returns. [TIMESTAMPS] 0:00 Intro 0:22 Bitcoin Buy Now Debate 4:57 Key Cycle Indicators 8:39 Rotation Still Missing 14:50 Macro Risks Ahead 27:02 Patience And Returns 30:24 Price Levels To Watch 35:11 Drawdown And Outlook 36:48 More Reports Coming
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NEW REPORT: Why does bitcoin:native continue to track the 4-Year Cycle? Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle may look arbitrary, but the data tells a deeper story. @JustDeauIt and @RyanSAdams break down how leverage, credit, stablecoins, DeFi loans, miners, and Strategy drive crypto’s recurring booms and busts, and whether one final domino still needs to fall. [TIMESTAMPS] 0:00 Intro 5:21 Bitcoin’s Capital Base 15:00 Leverage Drives the Premium 20:07 Stablecoins and VC Flow 23:08 On-Chain Loan Cycles 26:08 Perps and Treasury Leverage 32:14 Deleveraging and Hidden Risks 34:29 Miner Capitulation 37:12 Why Four Years? 40:08 ETH and Solana Positioning
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Last bear market, bitcoin:native fell 75%. “If we come down 65%... that still gets us down to 45K.” “The ETFs were supposed to be diamond hands. That is not the case anymore.” - @JustDeauIt The market may be too comfortable with the idea that the worst is behind us. What could be the next catalyst for more volatility? @saylor's $STRC? What else?
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NEW REPORT: Has BTC Entered the "Buy Zone?" Has Bitcoin entered the buy zone, or is one final flush still ahead? @JustDeauIt and @RyanSAdams break down why bitcoin:native under $67K looks attractive for long-term buyers, what realized losses and top-buyer cohorts reveal about seller exhaustion, and how AI weakness, inflation, and rising odds of Fed hikes could shape the next major move. [TIMESTAMPS] 0:00 Intro 1:39 False Bull Flag Revisited 5:32 Tracking Deep Value Signals 11:04 Strategy Fear & Unwind 18:09 Who Is Buying Bitcoin? 22:15 Signs of Seller Exhaustion 25:08 Bitcoin Leads the Nasdaq 26:33 AI Boom Or Bust 35:58 Macro Risks & Inflation 43:20 TDR Portfolio Strategy 48:50 Buying Bitcoin Under 67K
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LIVE NOW -- Momentum is slowing as macro risks are rising bitcoin:native just closed above a key bear market resistance level, but Mike still isn’t ready to call a regime shift. @JustDeauIt and @RyanSAdams break down why this rally looks stretched, what $79K, $82.7K, and $85K are signaling, how weak spot volume and rising macro risk could slow momentum, and why June may be the real test for bulls. [TIMESTAMPS] 0:00 Intro 1:45 Bear Market Symmetry 6:00 Comparing Past Cycles 14:05 Who’s Selling at 80K? 19:23 Weak Market Conditions 23:10 Momentum Starts Fading 27:37 June’s Historical Weakness 29:12 Key Bitcoin Price Levels 32:40 Closing & Disclaimers
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